What to Expect from the Tokyo Visit | Tarique Rahman’s Japan visit: Turning trust into tangible gains | The Daily Star - Alo Japan

Published : 18 October 2026

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Updated : 18 October 2026, 00:10

Zillur Rahman

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman should arrive in Tokyo with a clear message: Bangladesh is ready to become a dependable economic and strategic partner for Japan. But goodwill alone will not be enough. He must show what Bangladesh can offer, how it intends to protect investment and why Japan should place greater confidence in its future.

The reported four-day visit, beginning on October 26, is expected to focus on economic cooperation, investment and a possible arrangement for Bangladeshi workers. These are promising areas, but negotiations are not achievements. The visit should produce practical commitments that both countries can follow through on.

Japan has been one of Bangladesh’s most trusted development partners. Its contributions to infrastructure development have been substantial. The challenge now is to build on that relationship through stronger trade, industrial investment, skilled employment and maritime cooperation.

The partnership has a long history. Japan recognised Bangladesh in February 1972, and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman visited Tokyo the following year. President Ziaur Rahman visited in 1978 and 1980. An air services agreement and the first bilateral meeting on commerce and economic cooperation in 1980 showed that relations were moving beyond diplomatic goodwill.

Begum Khaleda Zia’s visits in 1994 and 2005 carried this engagement forward. The 2002 technical cooperation agreement provided an institutional framework, while her July 2005 talks with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi gave the relationship a wider economic and strategic direction. Their joint statement recognised Bangladesh as a bridge between South and East Asia and placed Japan within Dhaka’s “Look East” diplomacy. Investment, technology, training and good governance were already priorities. Two decades later, the question is how much Bangladesh has delivered on them.

The 2014 comprehensive partnership and the 2023 strategic partnership deepened cooperation in infrastructure, connectivity and economic security. Tarique Rahman inherits these commitments, along with the responsibility to make them work. Relations with Japan must remain a national priority, not a political possession that changes hands with each government.

Bangladesh offers more than a need for development assistance. It has a sizeable domestic market, a growing industrial base and a strategic position on the Bay of Bengal. Japan wants reliable supply chains, commercial opportunities and secure maritime routes. Dhaka should understand these interests and negotiate from a position of confidence.

The seventh Bangladesh–Japan Foreign Office Consultations (FOC) were held in Dhaka on August 12, 2026. Foreign Secretary Asad Alam Siam and Japanese Senior Deputy Foreign Minister Namazu Hiroyuki led their respective delegations. Photo: MOFA, Bangladesh

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Matarbari’s deep-sea port and the Bay of Bengal Industrial Growth Belt, or BIG-B, illustrate the possibilities. Together, they could strengthen logistics, energy and industrial connectivity, including links with India’s northeast.

Yet geography does not guarantee success. A modern port is of limited value without efficient customs, dependable transport, competitive charges and industries that generate cargo. Bangladesh has spent too many years celebrating ambitious projects before asking whether they will deliver. Matarbari must not become another example. The government should be clear about the costs, deadlines and benefits, particularly when regional connectivity is involved.

The immediate trade priority is the Economic Partnership Agreement signed on February 6, 2026, Bangladesh’s first. Covering far more than tariffs, it includes customs, services, investment, electronic commerce, procurement, labour and environmental provisions. The Tokyo visit should help turn this agreement into something businesses can use. That will require administrative preparation, clear rules and support for exporters.

With Bangladesh scheduled to graduate from least developed country status on November 24, 2026, although it has requested an extension, preparation is urgent. Whatever happens to the timetable, the country cannot depend indefinitely on preferential market access.

Japanese assistance with product testing, certification and supplier development could help Bangladeshi firms meet demanding international standards. Footwear, processed foods, light engineering and technology services deserve attention alongside garments.

Investment is another area where opportunity and frustration coexist. Japan’s foreign ministry recorded 338 Japanese companies operating in Bangladesh as of October 2025. A JETRO survey presented in March 2026 found that 56.9 per cent of surveyed firms planned to expand within one or two years.

That interest is encouraging, but investors will judge Bangladesh by their everyday experience. Delayed approvals, inconsistent tax decisions, unreliable utilities and difficulties in resolving disputes can undermine even attractive investment prospects.

A successful visit should leave behind more than a joint declaration. Bangladesh needs a clear plan to implement the Economic Partnership Agreement, firm infrastructure deadlines, specific reforms to improve the investment climate, a credible worker recruitment system and concrete commitments on maritime and humanitarian cooperation.

The Japanese-backed economic zone at Araihazar should become a working example of how Bangladesh can do better. Businesses need predictable services, published deadlines and effective grievance mechanisms. Routine problems should not require intervention from the highest levels of government.

Financial discipline matters equally. JICA’s June 2026 emergency support agreement offers up to ¥50 billion for economic resilience and a stable energy supply, with a published annual interest rate of 3.05 per cent. Such financing can help, but every commitment must be assessed against its economic benefits, repayment obligations and currency risks.

Bangladesh cannot afford projects that look impressive at inauguration but become costly burdens afterwards. Transparent procurement, timely completion and sound financial management are essential. Energy cooperation should also place greater weight on efficiency, grid reliability and renewables rather than creating further dependence on imported fuels.

Employment cooperation could produce some of the visit’s most direct benefits. Japan needs skilled workers, and Bangladesh has young people seeking opportunities. But sending workers abroad is not simply a matter of signing an agreement.

Language proficiency, technical training and recognised qualifications must match employers’ needs. Recruitment costs should be reasonable, contracts should be understandable and workers should be protected against exploitation. Success should be measured by actual placements, wages and working conditions, not ambitious recruitment announcements.

Security cooperation is also growing. The defence equipment and technology transfer agreement signed on February 3, 2026, established a framework for future transfers. Japan’s handover of five patrol boats in July under its Official Security Assistance programme added a practical maritime dimension.

Bangladesh should focus on surveillance, search and rescue, disaster response, training and maintenance. It must also preserve strategic flexibility. Japan is a US ally, while Bangladesh has important relationships with India, China and others. Cooperation with one partner need not come at the expense of another. Sovereignty, international law and independent decision-making should remain the guiding principles.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman meets a Japanese delegation led by Parliamentary Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs Shimada Tomaki at the Prime Minister’s Office on July 1, 2026. Discussions covered key issues, including the energy crisis, airport terminal development and Rohingya repatriation. Photo: PMO

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The Rohingya crisis also deserves attention. In March 2026, Japan announced ¥2.57 billion in additional assistance for refugees and host communities. Bangladesh should seek continued humanitarian support and stronger diplomatic engagement towards safe, voluntary and dignified repatriation. Instability across the border threatens the very regional connectivity both countries hope to develop.

Nor should Bangladesh forget the seven Japanese citizens killed in the July 2016 terrorist attack while working on preparations for Dhaka’s mass transit development. Japan continued supporting Bangladesh afterwards. Protecting foreign professionals and everyone working for the country’s development is an obligation that goes beyond diplomacy.

Ultimately, the harder test lies at home. The 2005 joint statement recognised the importance of governance to investment. That lesson remains unfinished. Predictable rules, credible courts, accountable institutions and respect for contracts will attract lasting Japanese investment more than repeated assurances in Tokyo.

Tarique Rahman has an opportunity to build on a relationship nurtured by successive generations of leaders. Japan’s trust is a national asset. The visit should honour that history, but its success will be judged by something more immediate: better jobs, stronger businesses and lasting opportunities for Bangladeshis.

Zillur Rahman is a political analyst and President of the Centre for Governance Studies (CGS). He hosts Tritiyo Matra on Channel i and writes on geopolitics, strategic affairs and governance. Follow him on X: @zillur.