The U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma sits within an urban area in Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture, in this photo taken from a Mainichi Shimbun helicopter on Aug. 23, 2026, as work to relocate the base is underway. (Mainichi/Takashi Kamiiriki)
TOKYO — Voters in Okinawa’s gubernatorial election over the weekend placed greater priority on boosting the economy than on the issue of relocating a U.S. military base, according to a joint survey by the Mainichi Shimbun and local broadcaster Ryukyu Broadcasting Corp. The survey found that 53% of voters cited the economy as their top concern, while 17% pointed to the base relocation issue.
The smartphone-based survey on voter behavior was conducted on Sept. 13, the day the Okinawa gubernatorial contest was held, targeting voters who had already cast their ballots.
When asked which of six issues, including “other,” they considered most important when casting their votes, 53% of respondents chose “efforts to promote the economy,” making it the most common response. That figure was well ahead of the 17% who cited “views on relocating the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to the Henoko district of Nago,” which ranked second.
The other responses were “efforts on child care, education and welfare” at 13%; “other” at 9%; and 3% each for “approach to transportation and urban development” and “response to the accident off Henoko, in which a student on a school trip and another person died.”
In a similar question asked in a voter behavior survey in the previous 2022 gubernatorial election, the Henoko relocation issue was the top response at 40%, while economic promotion was second at 30%, though the results cannot be simply compared because the response options do not fully match. The latest results suggest that voters’ criteria for casting ballots have changed significantly.
Economy-focused voters favored Koja
Genta Koja raises his fist at a gathering in Nago, Okinawa Prefecture, on Aug. 10, 2026. (Mainichi/Masanori Hirakawa)
Among respondents who chose “efforts to promote the economy” this time, 79% said they voted for Genta Koja, far above the 21% who said they voted for incumbent Denny Tamaki. By contrast, among those who chose “views on relocating the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma to the Henoko district of Nago,” 80% said they voted for Tamaki, while the figure for Koja remained at 19%. Voters who prioritized boosting the economy are believed to have strongly tended to vote for Koja, while those who prioritized the base issue favored Tamaki, suggesting that rising voter interest in economic promotion may have influenced the race.
Among respondents who said they voted for Tamaki in the previous governor election, 78% said they voted for Tamaki again this time, while 21% said they voted for Koja. In the previous gubernatorial contest, 43% of men and 62% of women said they voted for Tamaki, but this time the figures fell to 33% among men and 42% among women. Tamaki appears to have particularly struggled to expand his vote tally among female voters.
Okinawa Gov. Denny Tamaki looks stern as he responds to reporters after the central government executed by proxy the approval of design changes for the new base off the Henoko district of Nago, Okinawa Prefecture, in this photo taken in Naha on Dec. 28, 2023. (Mainichi/Shinnosuke Kyan)
The survey was conducted using the smartphone-based “d-Survey” method. NTT Docomo’s “d Point Club” membership service, covering roughly 80 million people aged 18 and up nationwide, was used to randomly select respondents residing in Okinawa Prefecture. Emails requesting cooperation with the survey were sent, and 1,896 people answered whom they voted for.
Unlike exit polls conducted at polling stations, voter behavior surveys can also capture trends among voters who cast ballots in early voting.
(Japanese original by Daisuke Nohara, Poll Office)
AloJapan.com