Tropical cyclone formation alert issued for disturbance 99W Invest; model track guidance, forecast ensembles indicate Okinawa might be in the crosshairs. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
1 a.m. Wednesday, May 27, Japan time: A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued for a disturbance labeled 99W Invest. Initial model track guidance and forecast ensembles indicate that Okinawa could be in its sights about a week hence, with Tokyo possibly to follow.
At 9 p.m. Tuesday, 99W was about 1,365 miles south-southeast of Kadena Air Base, inching west-northwest at 8 mph. Okinawa is expected to assume seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 posture on June 1, perhaps just in time for 99W’s forecast arrival.
The GFS forecast ensemble shows possible track toward Okinawa in about a week as a Category 1-equivalent system. The Euro forecast ensemble depicts a track further east of Okinawa as a tropical storm.
Way too early to make definitive calls at this point. But it never hurts to prepare early. Storm Tracker has the watch.
AloJapan.com