A Japanese option for managing risk in the AUKUS optimal pathway

Even if the political will existed, the time, resources and effort required for the full evaluation, competition and acquisition process of a new class of submarines effectively prohibits this as an option.

However, though it would still present obstacles, leasing a modern submarine capability to fill an emerging gap would present far fewer challenges. Leasing or otherwise rapidly acquiring Japanese submarines would require few resources, at least initially, and wouldn’t detract from the optimal pathway until that path became obviously unachievable or significantly delayed.

As we get closer to key decision points – such as certification to US Congress by the next US administration, likely in 2030 or 2031 – the level of effort required to make leasing a small number of Japanese submarines a reality could be dialled up or down according to the assessed level of risk at the time.