Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction, Odds to Win Mutua Madrid Open

Data Skrive

Updated April 26, 2026, 10:36 a.m. ET

Aryna Sabalenka (No. 1 ranking) will face Naomi Osaka (No. 15) in the Round of 16 of the Mutua Madrid Open on Monday, April 27.

Sabalenka is favored (-901) in this match against Osaka (+525).

Tennis odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Sunday at 10:36 AM ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka matchup infoTournament: Mutua Madrid OpenRound: Round of 16Date: Monday, April 27Court Surface: ClayWatch the Tennis Channel and more sports on Fubo!Sabalenka vs. Osaka Prediction

Based on the implied probility from the moneyline, Sabalenka has a 90.0% to win.

Sabalenka vs. Osaka Betting OddsSabalenka’s odds to win match: -901Osaka’s odds to win match: +525Sabalenka vs. Osaka matchup performance & statsSabalenka has won one tournament over the past year on clay, with a match record of 16-2 on that surface.In terms of serve/return winning percentages on clay over the past 12 months, Sabalenka has won 76.3% of her games on serve, and 45.3% on return.Sabalenka has converted 79 of 177 break points on clay (44.6%) over the past 12 months and is fifth in break points won.Sabalenka won her previous tournament (the Miami Open presented by Itau), defeating No. 4-ranked Coco Gauff in the final 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 on March 28.Osaka has taken part in two tournaments on clay over the past year, registering a 3-2 match record on that surface.While playing on clay, Osaka has a 73.5% winning percentage in service games and a 31.8% winning percentage in return games.On clay Osaka has won 47.6% of break points, 20 out of 42, which ranks 131st.Osaka suffered defeat in the Round of 64 of her most recent tournament (the Miami Open presented by Itau) on March 21, when she went down 5-7, 4-6 to Talia Gibson.

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