By Tony FairbairnAryna Sabalenka [1] v Naomi Osaka [14]Casper Ruud [12] v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina [26]Belinda Bencic [11] v Hailey Baptiste [30]MADRID, SPAIN – Aryna Sabalenka will battle Naomi Osaka in a heavyweight fourth round clash at the Mutua Madrid Open.
Aryna Sabalenka [1] v Naomi Osaka [14] H2H & Match FundamentalsAryna Sabalenka [1] v Naomi Osaka [14] H2H: Tied at 1-1 Madrid 2026 Madrid, Spain Clay (O) Prize Money: €92,470Second on Manolo Santana Stadium (Not before 12:00 BST)Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required
There is one accolade missing from Aryna Sabalenka’s collection. That is of course Roland Garros where the world number one has been so close in the past. However, Sabalenka will be hoping she can build some confidence and momentum as she has proven in the past that she can be the best in the world on any surface. Now, Sabalenka chases more glory in Madrid where she is the defending champion and won multiple titles in the past as she looks to win a third consecutive WTA 1000 event.
A heavyweight clash awaits Sabalenka in the form of Naomi Osaka. The former world number one has produced incredible results on hard courts in the past but has been less successful on the red dirt. Since her comeback to the tour, Osaka has been determined to improve on clay and that has been backed up with some incredible performances against the best players in the world. Now, the 14th seed looks to score a massive win in her season and build some much needed confidence heading into the second Grand Slam of the year.
Sabalenka will be aggressive on second serves, using the forehand to dominate play. Meanwhile, Osaka will aim to be dominant on serve and will aim to dominate the tempo of the rallies with the backhand. This will be a big match for both players with Sabalenka taking advantage of some loose unforced errors from Osaka to win the match in a tight contest.
Prediction: Sabalenka in three sets.
Casper Ruud [12] v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina [26] H2H & Match FundamentalsCasper Ruud [12] v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina [26] H2H: Tied at 3-3 Madrid 2026 Madrid, Spain Clay (O) Prize Money: €54,110First on Manolo Santana Stadium (10:00 BST)Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required
The resurgence of Casper Ruud is approaching. The Norwegian is the defending champion in Madrid and is back in his comfort zone of the clay. That couldn’t be more evident than in his second round match when he dismantled Jaume Munar with the loss of one game. A clear message to his rivals that he is on the hunt for more clay court glory and having reached two Roland Garros finals in the past, Ruud is now confident of a third. The question is does he have the consistent firepower to maintain this level?
That will be put to the test in a seventh career meeting against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The Spaniard has proved himself to be incredible on clay in the past and has beaten elite opposition before. However, it has been tough for Davidovich Fokina in recent months having to deal with injuries, setbacks and inconsistencies. Now Davidovich Fokina is back on clay, the Spaniard will aim to make an impression as he targets a big run of form on the road to Roland Garros.
Ruud will be aggressive on serve and will use the backhand to create a mixture of power and depth. Meanwhile, Davidovich Fokina will use the forehand to try and expose space on the court as he bids to wear Ruud’s game out. This will be another epic contest in their competitive rivalry with the faster conditions suiting Ruud’s aggressive game more.
Prediction: Ruud in three sets.
Belinda Bencic [11] v Hailey Baptiste [30] H2H & Match FundamentalsBelinda Bencic [11] v Hailey Baptiste [30]H2H: First MeetingMadrid 2026Madrid, SpainClay (O)Prize Money: €92,470First on Arantxa Sanchez Stadium (10:00 BST)Sky/Now TV <- Subscription Required
Inspired by previous runs, Belinda Bencic is targeting a big run in Madrid. A big win over Diana Shnaider will definitely give the 11th seed confidence as she heads towards Roland Garros. Although clay isn’t Bencic’s best surface, the Swiss will be aiming to make the most of the altitude in Spain as she looks to return to the quarter-finals in Madrid and continue her rise up the higher-end of the rankings.
Next up for Bencic is American rising star Hailey Baptiste. There is no lack of confidence from Baptiste who believes she can beat any player on her day and that was proven when she eliminated former Roland Garros finalist Jasmine Paolini. An explosive yet patient game, Baptiste will aim to make more waves this season and that will hope to continue as she looks to defeat another big name on the WTA tour.
Bencic will aim to get the first strike in on the forehand and will aim to finish points off at the net. Meanwhile, Baptiste will aim to be proactive on return and use the forehand to open up space on the court. This will be an intriguing battle but Bencic’s bigger game should prove too much here.
Prediction: Bencic in straight sets.
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