Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka Prediction, Odds to Win BNP Paribas Open

Data Skrive

Updated March 9, 2026, 6:37 a.m. ET

Sep 27, 2020; Paris, France; Cori Gauff (USA) reaches for the ball prior to her serve during her match against Johanna Konta (GBR) on day one at Stade Roland Garros.

In the Round of 16 at the BNP Paribas Open on Tuesday, Naomi Osaka (ranked No. 16) faces Aryna Sabalenka (No. 1).

Sabalenka is favored (-549) in this match compared to the underdog Osaka (+375).

Tennis odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Monday at 6:37 AM ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Naomi Osaka matchup infoTournament: BNP Paribas OpenRound: Round of 16Date: Tuesday, March 10Court Surface: HardWatch the Tennis Channel and more sports on Fubo!Sabalenka vs. Osaka Prediction

Based on the implied probility from the moneyline, Sabalenka has an 84.6% to win.

Sabalenka vs. Osaka Betting OddsSabalenka’s odds to win match: -549Osaka’s odds to win match: +375Sabalenka vs. Osaka matchup performance & statsSabalenka has won three tournaments on hard courts over the past 12 months, with a record of 40-5 on that surface.In terms of serve/return winning percentages on hard courts over the past 12 months, Sabalenka has won 82.9% of her games on serve and 42.3% on return.Including hard courts only, Sabalenka has converted 48.3% of her break-point opportunities (173 of 358) over the past year.In her last tournament, the Australian Open, Sabalenka went down in the final to No. 5-ranked Elena Rybakina, 4-6, 6-4, 4-6 on January 31.Osaka has failed to win a title on hard courts over the past year, registering a 20-8 record on that surface.Osaka has gone 224-for-297 in service games on hard courts (75.4% winning percentage), and 119-for-305 in return games (39.0%).On hard courts Osaka is 112-for-211 on break points, 53.1%, which ranks 53rd.

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