Credit: WeatherBell
Japan has a solid two-wave snow cycle through Tuesday night, with the best coverage this weekend and another colder refresh Monday into Tuesday. Guidance is generally aligned on timing through Tuesday night, so skiers can plan around two primary snowfall windows instead of scattered one-off bursts. The weekend wave favors Hokkaido first, then snowfall broadens and shifts with a second push that leans more toward central and northern Honshu. Snow levels drop quickly after the initial warm edge, and most snowfall after Saturday falls with snow levels near or below many resort bases. Winds will matter most on Saturday and Sunday at exposed terrain, but temperatures remain cold enough for good surface quality once the colder air settles in. After Tuesday night, confidence drops and totals become more speculative, especially in northern zones.
From Thursday through Friday night, models are converging on a lighter opener, then converging again on a stronger ramp-up early Saturday that continues through Sunday night. The Thursday-Friday period looks modest, with many resorts landing near 0 cm to 10 cm and favored western Hokkaido pockets closer to 10 cm to 15 cm. During this opener, snow levels fluctuate mostly between 100 meters and 700 meters, and SLR commonly sits in the 7 to 12 range, so early snow quality trends dense to moderate. Saturday into Sunday is the first major cycle: guidance agrees on timing, while intensity spread is moderate and highest in Hokkaido. A realistic regional signal is 20 cm to 70 cm for Hokkaido and 10 cm to 30 cm for many Honshu resorts by late Sunday. Snow-level guidance is converging on a drop toward 0 meters to 300 meters by Saturday night, and wind guidance is also converging on the strongest gust window, with frequent 60 km/h to 90 km/h ridge gusts.
Monday into Tuesday brings a second, colder round, and model guidance is still converging on timing but diverging more on where the highest rates focus. Central and northern Honshu have the steadiest consensus for this wave, while Hokkaido signals are more uneven from one solution to another. The practical expectation is another 10 cm to 30 cm in favored Honshu terrain and roughly 5 cm to 20 cm across Hokkaido, with better rates centered from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Snow levels remain low with fairly tight agreement, generally near 0 meters to 300 meters when snowfall is active. Temperatures during precipitation stay mostly around -8 C to -3 C at ski elevations, and SLR trends 12 to 16, supporting lighter, drier snow than the weekend opener. Wind guidance is moderately convergent on a step down from weekend peaks, though exposed terrain still sees periodic 40 km/h to 60 km/h gusts.
From Wednesday through next weekend, confidence drops sharply as models diverge on storm persistence, placement, and wind timing. One outlier model keeps a much snowier pattern locked over Hokkaido for several days, while other guidance shows shorter and weaker bursts separated by lulls. That spread means this period should be treated as speculative today, with conservative planning numbers near 20 cm to 60 cm for Hokkaido and 5 cm to 20 cm for Honshu from Wednesday through Saturday. Snow levels still look generally supportive for snow, often between 0 meters and 400 meters during active hours, and temperatures stay mostly below freezing. If the snowier scenario verifies, totals could run higher in northern zones, but current agreement does not support precise storm-by-storm commitments beyond Tuesday night.
Resort Forecast Totals (Thu Mar 05 – Tue Mar 10)
Kiroro – 77 cm to 121 cm
Sapporo Teine – 57 cm to 91 cm
Shiga Kogen Okushiga Kogen – 43 cm to 72 cm
Niseko Grand Hirafu – 41 cm to 65 cm
Gala Yuzawa – 39 cm to 64 cm
Naeba – 33 cm to 53 cm
Appi Kogen – 31 cm to 49 cm
Akakura Onsen – 28 cm to 47 cm
Nozawa Onsen – 28 cm to 46 cm
Furano – 28 cm to 46 cm
Rusutsu – 27 cm to 42 cm
Madarao Kogen – 20 cm to 34 cm
Hakuba Happo-one – 20 cm to 31 cm
Hoshino Resort Tomamu – 18 cm to 27 cm
Zao Onsen – 14 cm to 23 cm
AloJapan.com