Megaquake Probability Off Nemuro Rises to around 90 Pct: Panel

Newsfrom Japan

Society

Jan 15, 2026 20:26 (JST)

Tokyo, Jan. 15 (Jiji Press)–The probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8-8.5 occurring along the Chishima Trench off the city of Nemuro in the northernmost Japan prefecture of Hokkaido within 30 years has risen to around 90 pct from around 80 pct, according to a Japanese government panel.

The government’s earthquake research committee recalculated the probability of major earthquakes happening along trenches and active inland faults that had undergone long-term assessments in the past, with Jan. 1 this year as the base date as part of its annual review.

The probability continues to rise unless an anticipated earthquake occurs.

Meanwhile, the probability within 30 years of an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0-8.6 occurring off the Tokachi region in eastern Hokkaido remained unchanged at about 20 pct, but the probability within 50 years rose to around 50 pct from around 40 pct.

Along the Japan Trench, the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of around 7.4 occurring within 30 years in the landward area off Miyagi Prefecture, northeastern Japan, rose to 79-95 pct from 76-93 pct.

[Copyright The Jiji Press, Ltd.]

Jiji Press