The probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8-8.5 occurring along the Chishima Trench off the city of Nemuro in Hokkaido within 30 years has risen to around 90% from around 80%, according to a Japanese government panel.
The government’s earthquake research committee recalculated the probability of major earthquakes happening along trenches and active inland faults that had undergone long-term assessments in the past, with Jan. 1 this year as the base date as part of its annual review.
The probability continues to rise until an anticipated earthquake occurs.
Meanwhile, the probability within 30 years of an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0-8.6 occurring off the Tokachi region in eastern Hokkaido remained unchanged at about 20%, but the probability within 50 years rose to around 50% from around 40%.
Along the Japan Trench, the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of around 7.4 occurring within 30 years in the landward area off Miyagi Prefecture rose to 79-95% from 76-93%.
Meanwhile, the committee also released the results of its latest evaluation of recent seismic activity in areas hit by a powerful earthquake that struck the Noto Peninsula in Ishikawa Prefecture on Jan. 1, 2024. The 7.6-magnitude quake occurred due to the displacement of a long-standing active fault near the northern coast of the peninsula.
Due to this effect, earthquakes with a seismic intensity of more than 1 on Japan’s seismic intensity scale, which can be felt by people, have continued to occur several times a month in the vicinity even now.
“The current level of seismic activity may continue for the time being,” the committee said.
AloJapan.com