Osaka Gas (TSE:9532) just deepened its low carbon pivot by joining TotalEnergies and partners in the Live Oak e methane project in Nebraska, a move that directly targets Japan’s future carbon neutral gas demand.
See our latest analysis for Osaka Gas.
Investors have been rewarding this decarbonization push, with Osaka Gas delivering a robust year to date share price return and a standout one year total shareholder return of 71.16 percent. Longer term total shareholder returns above 170 percent signal that momentum has been building rather than fading.
If this kind of strategic shift has your attention, it could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other fast moving opportunities insiders already back.
Yet, with Osaka Gas now trading above analyst targets after a powerful multi year rerating, investors have to ask whether the valuation still leaves upside or if the market has fully priced in this low carbon growth story.
Price-to-Earnings of 11.6x: Is it justified?
At a last close of ¥5,330, Osaka Gas trades on a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 times, which screens cheaper than both the broader Japanese market and regional gas utility peers, even after the recent share price surge.
The price-to-earnings multiple compares the current share price to per-share earnings, making it a straightforward way to gauge how much investors are paying for each unit of profit in a mature, regulated utility like Osaka Gas.
In this case, the shares look attractively priced when stacked against the Japanese market on 14 times earnings and the Asian gas utilities peer group on 13.6 times. However, the fair price-to-earnings estimate of 9.1 times implies the current market is assigning a richer valuation than the SWS fair ratio suggests.
Relative to peers, the 11.6 times multiple signals investors are willing to pay less for Osaka Gas earnings than the average Asian gas utility, yet materially more than the SWS fair ratio would indicate. This highlights how far sentiment has shifted alongside the decarbonization strategy.
Explore the SWS fair ratio for Osaka Gas
Result: Price-to-Earnings of 11.6x (OVERVALUED)
However, risks remain, particularly if decarbonization projects disappoint commercially or if Japan’s gas demand weakens faster than Osaka Gas can pivot its portfolio.
Find out about the key risks to this Osaka Gas narrative.
Another Take on Value
Our DCF model paints a far harsher picture, with Osaka Gas trading at ¥5,330 against an estimated fair value of ¥1,916. That signals the shares could be heavily overvalued on cash flow terms. Are investors paying too far ahead of the decarbonization story?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
9532 Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Osaka Gas for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 910 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Build Your Own Osaka Gas Narrative
If you see the numbers differently or simply prefer hands on analysis, you can quickly build a custom view of Osaka Gas in under three minutes: Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Osaka Gas research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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