The second batch of WTA Tokyo quarterfinalists will be determined on Day 4, and second seed Elena Rybakina is two wins away from qualifying for the WTA Finals. Will the Kazakh keep her hopes alive?
WTA Tokyo Day 4 Predictions
Belinda Bencic vs Varvara Gracheva
Head-to-head: first meeting
Belinda Bencic suffered a disappointing loss to Jasmine Paolini in the quarterfinals of Ningbo. The Swiss was a set and break up and still lost the match. Bencic has done a lot of heavy lifting in the first half of the season and has only tallied seven wins since the start of August. But half of her six defeats in that time have come against Top 10 players. While Varvara Gracheva enters this match in confident form, she’s unlikely to hinder Bencic’s path to the last eight. Bencic has more refined power than the Frenchwoman and hasn’t lost to a player ranked outside the Top 80 in a completed match this season.
Prediction: Bencic in 2
Jaqueline Cristian vs Ekaterina Alexandrova
Head-to-head: first meeting
Alexandrova has lost two finals this swing. She led Iga Swiatek in Seoul and Elena Rybakina in Ningbo, but still finished on the losing end. The Russian just lacked a cutting edge when the match went the distance. Alexandrova’s recovery will be crucial to her progress in Tokyo. When she lost to Swiatek in Seoul, she was visibly fatigued in her next match in Beijing and was well beaten by Barbora Krejcikova. Energy could be a factor and Cristian could exploit any lingering fatigue.
Prediction: Cristian in 3
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Sofia Kenin vs Sonobe Wakana
Head-to-head: first meeting
Wild card Sonobe Wakana registered just her second main draw win at the WTA level this week. The World No. 263 stunned Czech teenager Nikola Bartunkova in straight sets to win on her Tokyo debut. Sonobe was clutch under pressure and saved eight of nine break points. While victory was impressive, it would be a major shock if she could replicate that result against former Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin. The American was efficient in dismissing Moyuka Uchijima 6-1 6-3 in her opener and can count on her experience to reach her first quarterfinal since April.
Prediction: Kenin in 2
Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez
Head-to-head: Fernandez 2-1 Rybakina
The second match on the main court is a massive one. Ningbo champion Elena Rybakina is in a must-win situation in WTA Finals qualification. The former Wimbledon champion needs a semifinal showing to book her spot in Riyadh, as the final eighth spot in the WTA race comes down to just two players. Like Rybakina, Leylah Fernandez is also coming off a title win this past week and the Canadian toppled Maria Sakkari in her opening match in Tokyo. Fernandez has defeated Rybakina in each of their last two matches. However, this is hardly a matchup issue as Rybakina let the matches slip through her racket with missed match points and failing to serve for victory. The power differential and what is at stake should inspire the second to get a much-needed win over Fernandez.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
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