The round of 16 at the WTA Tokyo tournament continues today, and we have more best bets for you. While some of our previously covered matches are yet to be played, we wanted to round them out with the remaining matches available for selection. These are my best bets. Please share your thoughts in the comment section.
WTA Tokyo
Alexandrova – Cristian: Time 03:00
H2H: 0-0
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jaqueline Cristian is a meeting of two very determined women. Alexandrova is 46-23 in 2025, and Cristian is 32-24. Cristian is 20-14 on a hardcourt, while Alexandrova is 21-15. Where they separate is in their recent play. Alexandrova is 7-3 with two finals in her last ten matches, but Cristian is 5-5 with one semifinal. Honestly, Alexandrova’s 2025 resume reads like an overachieving child’s report card after they spent the entire year hunkered down and buried in books, only coming out to ace their tests.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Alexandrova as a large favorite. The average is 1.3 to 3.46, so they don’t see this as a particularly close match. It makes sense given Cristian’s level of play and her success this year. Alexandrova is one of the favorites to win this tournament for a reason. Whenever she enters a tournament, she doesn’t leave until at least the round of 16, and that’s the bare minimum. Most times it’s much further than that. I suspect she’s going to apply a ton of pressure to Cristian and not give her any chance to settle in.
That being said, Alexandrova winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Alexandrova winning 2:0 @1.86 @1xBet
Fernandez – Rybakina: Time 03:00
H2H: 2-1
Our featured match is Leylah Fernandez vs Elena Rybakina, a meeting of two Top 25 players in the World. The two have already met this year in a semifinal at WTA Washington, won by Fernandez in a three-set tiebreak. Their 2024 match at WTA Cincinnati also went three sets and had a tiebreak in the second set. The lone match Rybakina won was the quarterfinal match at WTA Doha, also in ’24. Rybakina and Fernandez both have two titles this year, but both of Fernandez’s came on a hardcourt. Rybakina had one on a hardcourt and one on clay.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Rybakina as nearly a 4-1 favorite, which I think is a bit weird. Fernandez is riding a six-match winning streak, but Rybakina is only on a four-match winning streak. Fernandez is 7-3 in her last ten matches, Rybakina is 8-2. I’ve no problem with Rybakina being the favorite, but unless the books are sure that Fernandez isn’t healthy or is in a bad headspace, then the line total doesn’t make sense. This would definitely be the best candidate for an upset in any of our matches. I think 3.9 on Unibet would be really tempting to me if I were deadset on picking Fernandez. I’m going to roll with Rybakina, but I won’t be shocked if I get this one wrong.
That being said, Rybakina winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Rybakina winning @1.85 @Coral
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
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