Empires do not collapse overnight — a classic phrase that is proving true in Japanese politics today.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), one of the country’s most successful political parties, has been in power almost continuously since its formation in 1955.
Only twice have Japanese voters let another party govern, before reverting to the LDP as their preferred, at least more stable, option.
But a series of scandals and changing voter demands has weakened the once powerful LDP to a minority government.
And now, members of the great political party are scrambling to secure its future.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is stepping down as leader after only a year in the role.
It has left the party looking for a new face — and the frontrunner options could not be more starkly different.
How inflation and Trump changed Japanese politics
In the eyes of Japan’s super-aged population, the LDP is the stable party.
Japanese voters are turning away from politics. (AP: Eugene Hoshiko)
Since 1999, it has relied on junior partner, Komeito, a pacifist, socially conservative, Buddhist political party, to form a coalition government.
And that coalition had worked relatively well until the last few years, when instability came to Japan. Voters have been left wanting.
The first shock was inflation, which added pressure to flat wages that have dogged Japan for decades.
Then, United States President Donald Trump returned to office with an agenda that brought instability to the Asia-Pacific region, particularly through his leadership style and trade war tactics that have hurt Japanese manufacturers.
Donald Trump has had an impact on Japanese politics. (Reuters: Marco Bello)
His America-first position has also put a question mark around Japan’s alliance with the US, and made many feel more exposed to China.
“The overwhelming majority of LDP supporters backed the party for its economic policies and cooperation with the US,” said politics expert Professor Naoko Taniguchi from Keio University.
“Japan’s fundamental national structure has always relied on good Japan-US relations. Now, due to changes in American politics, this has become somewhat uncertain.”
As voters reeled from a cost-of-living crisis, they looked to the government for reassurance and relief.
But the LDP was stuck talking about itself and, in politics, that is never a good thing.
Japan’s prime minister has resigned
Last year, a political slush fund embroiled some of the party’s biggest movers and shakers.
The then-prime minister, Fumio Kishida, was not directly linked with the scandals, but his leadership was seen as too weak and ineffective to fix the problem.
So, he announced his resignation, and another cleanskin was allowed to lead: Shigeru Ishiba.
But his decision to call a snap election backfired, and Ishiba was left in a minority government.
Unable to get any clearance for big policy ideas and without a personality to at least appear in command, Ishiba also fell on his sword.
The ‘Iron Lady’ and a young contender
On Saturday, the LDP will count votes on the party’s leadership position.
The winner becomes the party president and is also expected to become the Japanese prime minister. Parliament has to approve the decision.
Five LDP politicians are running for the top job, including Defence Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi. But there are two obvious choices: Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi.
Takaichi, a stalwart of the LDP, has risen through the ranks of the male-dominated conservative party to become a leading contender for the top job.
Sanae Takaichi is a staunch conservative who admires Margaret Thatcher. (AP: Takashi Aoyama/Pool)
She is conservative, a hawk, and a fan of the “Iron Lady”, Britain’s former prime minister, Margaret Thatcher.
If Takaichi wins, she would be Japan’s first female prime minister.
“She’s likely to appeal to the core traditional conservative base,” Professor Taniguchi said.
But while she may be popular, Professor Taniguchi says that view “might be limited to certain people of the party”.
“There’s also the risk factor of whether she can easily achieve cooperation with the opposition,” she said.
Alternatively, the LDP could pick Shinjiro Koizumi, a moderate who is the son of former maverick prime minister and neoliberal reformer, Junichiro Koizumi.
Shinjiro Koizumi is currently the agriculture minister and the son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi.
(Reuters: Issei Kato/Pool)
If successful, he would become post-war Japan’s youngest ever prime minister.
Comparisons could be made with former Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau.
But perhaps more importantly, given the current political vacuum, he is someone expected to build more consensus within his party as well as opposition parties.
“Politically, he leans more to the left and is tolerant of diversity,” says Professor Taniguchi
“He is popular both among older LDP members and among more casual supporters.
“If the goal is a relatively calm start, I think Mr Koizumi symbolises that.”
Who will win?
It will be Takaichi’s second attempt at the top job after narrowly missing out last year, when members of the party rallied behind Shigeru Ishiba in a leadership runoff.
Her political views proved too conservative for the conservative party, it seems.
The LDP will hold its party presidential election in early October. (Reuters: Jia Haocheng/Pool)
But in the age of uncertainty, she will be seen as the more experienced option.
Koizumi has long been seen as too “green” to lead the nation. Although, as agriculture minister, voters started to see him in a different light due to his response to the country’s rice shortage.
A third option touted is Defence Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi.
Yoshimasa Hayashi is another possible contender for the leadership position. (Reuters: Franck Robichon/Pool)
He would provide a balance of experience while also being less divisive than Sanae Takaichi.
“However, younger generations dissatisfied with the status quo and the LDP might find him uninspiring,” Professor Taniguchi says.
It’s not just Hayashi that voters may find uninspiring.
Voters in Japan are turning away from politics, with just 53.85 per cent taking part in last year’s lower house elections, the third lowest voter turnout.
The problem is that the opposition parties are not viewed as viable alternatives.
Professor Taniguchi said that means Japan may have to abandon the idea of a two-party system, like Australia, and get used to the idea of multi-party coalition governments.
“No single party has emerged that can become the core of a government on its own,” he said.
“It feels like we’ve entered a situation of multi-party decentralisation, or perhaps the polarisation of a multi-party system.”
Takaichi and Koizumi would bring different qualities to the role of prime minister. (Reuters: Jia Haocheng/Pool)
AloJapan.com