Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation as Japan’s prime minister in September 2025 has thrown the country into yet another period of political uncertainty. Ishiba, a veteran politician long seen as an outsider within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), had taken office less than a year earlier with promises of reform and renewal. Yet his premiership quickly became mired in difficulties, culminating in a string of electoral defeats, economic discontent, and mounting internal pressure from his own party.
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Ishiba’s decision to step down, though carefully timed, marks the latest in a series of short-lived Japanese governments and leaves open questions about both the immediate leadership transition and the longer-term direction of the LDP and the country.
In Japan recently, I heard PM Ishiba speak about a new Indian Ocean Community which will link Japan with Africa through India. The impression I had was that despite losses and low popularity, no one wanted his job till arrangements with the US were complete.
The roots of Ishiba’s downfall lay in his inability to translate early momentum into political strength. When he assumed office in October 2024, expectations were high that his plainspoken style and reputation for independence might restore credibility to the LDP after years of factional intrigue and scandal.
But almost immediately, Ishiba’s government found itself beset by economic troubles. Inflation, which had been steadily rising in the wake of global commodity shocks and a weakening yen, began to erode household budgets. For ordinary Japanese families, the most visible sign of hardship was the soaring price of staples such as rice. Despite government subsidies and repeated pledges to stabilise living costs, Ishiba’s team could not convince voters that relief was in sight. As frustration deepened, the ruling party’s support eroded.
The political consequences were swift. In 2024 the LDP had already lost its Lower House majority, an unprecedented blow for a party that had dominated postwar politics. In July 2025 the damage became even more acute when the LDP also lost control of the Upper House. This double defeat left Ishiba as a prime minister governing without majorities in either chamber of the Diet, a situation that rendered him dependent on tenuous alliances and constant compromise.
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In Japanese politics, where stability and authority are highly prized, this weakness was fatal. Voters interpreted the defeats as a repudiation of Ishiba’s leadership, while rivals within the LDP saw an opportunity to challenge his hold on power. They awaited the right time.
Initially, Ishiba resisted calls to resign. He argued that a sudden departure would create a damaging political vacuum at a time when Japan faced both economic headwinds and serious geopolitical risks. His allies pointed to his ongoing negotiations with the United States on trade as proof that he was still delivering for the national interest. Yet as weeks passed, the pressure from within his party became overwhelming. Senior figures such as former prime minister Taro Aso and other conservative powerbrokers began manoeuvring to force him out.
The LDP scheduled a leadership election, widely seen as a proxy no-confidence vote. Ishiba, reading the numbers, understood that he could not survive the contest without tearing the party apart. In the end, he chose to resign before the vote, framing his departure as an act of self-sacrifice intended to preserve party unity.
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The timing of his announcement was not accidental. Just days before he resigned, Ishiba concluded a critical set of tariff negotiations with Washington, securing concessions that lowered barriers to Japanese exports. He described the completion of this deal as a “milestone”, signalling that he was leaving office without abandoning unfinished business.
By portraying his resignation as both responsible and well-timed, Ishiba sought to protect his legacy, however short his tenure might have been. In reality, the decision reflected his recognition that the LDP’s internal divisions and electoral setbacks had made his position untenable.
The question now is what happens next. The LDP has set October 4, 2025, as the date for its emergency leadership election, with candidates already declaring their bids. Among the most prominent contenders is Sanae Takaichi, a veteran conservative with nationalist leanings. Takaichi has long opposed interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and favours bold fiscal expansion; if successful, she would become the country’s first female prime minister.
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Another strong candidate is Shinjiro Koizumi, the youthful agriculture minister and son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. Charismatic and reform-minded, Koizumi represents a new generation of leadership and could, if elected, be the youngest modern-era prime minister.
Other contenders include Yoshimasa Hayashi, the seasoned chief cabinet secretary with a background in diplomacy, and Toshimitsu Motegi, a former foreign minister with deep party ties. Each offers a distinct vision for the LDP’s future, and the contest is expected to be fierce.
Markets have already reacted sharply to Ishiba’s resignation and the leadership uncertainty. The yen weakened and government bond yields rose as investors worried about policy instability, but Japanese equities surged to record highs on speculation that a new administration would unleash more aggressive public spending.
This divergence captures the tension facing Japan’s next leader: on one hand, the need to reassure markets of fiscal discipline and central bank independence, and on the other, the political imperative to ease the burden of rising living costs on ordinary citizens.
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Whoever succeeds Ishiba will inherit a daunting set of challenges. The most immediate is restoring party unity and public trust. Years of corruption scandals, factional battles, and broken promises have eroded confidence in the LDP. A fresh face at the helm could help reset perceptions, but only if tangible policy results follow.
Managing inflation and addressing the cost-of-living crisis will also be urgent priorities, as voters’ patience is running thin. At the same time, Japan’s structural challenges remain: an ageing population, labour shortages, and long-term fiscal strain. None of these problems will be easily resolved, and they demand a leader with both political skill and policy vision.
The international dimension is equally critical. Japan continues to face tensions with China in the East China Sea, missile threats from North Korea, and the need to balance its alliance with the United States with calls for greater regional autonomy. Ishiba himself was a strong advocate of defence modernisation and deeper security cooperation with democratic partners.
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Ishiba’s successor will have to decide how much continuity to maintain, particularly as global geopolitics become more unstable. Diplomacy, trade, and security policy will thus remain at the centre of Japan’s foreign agenda. Ishiba leaves without attending a Quad summit. The last was held on September 21, 2024, while Ishiba took over on October 1.
In the end, Ishiba’s resignation underscores a recurring theme in Japanese politics: the difficulty of sustaining leadership in the face of mounting crises. Since the early 2000s, only Shinzo Abe managed to hold power for a prolonged period, thanks to both his political dominance and relative economic stability during much of his tenure.
Ishiba, like many of his predecessors, fell victim to a volatile mix of voter dissatisfaction, party intrigue, and economic headwinds. His brief time in office will likely be remembered less for achievements than for the fragility of his position and the swiftness of his downfall.
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What happens now depends largely on the outcome of the LDP leadership election. A victory for a reform-minded figure such as Koizumi could signal generational change and a bid to reconnect with younger voters. A win for Takaichi would mark a historic breakthrough for women in Japanese politics while also pushing the LDP in a more conservative direction.
Hayashi or Motegi, by contrast, would likely offer steadier, more technocratic leadership. Regardless of who prevails, the next prime minister will face an uphill struggle governing without clear parliamentary majorities at a time when voters are increasingly willing to punish failure at the ballot box.
Ishiba’s departure, therefore, is not just the end of one leader’s short-lived premiership but the beginning of a new and uncertain chapter in Japanese politics. His resignation highlights the fragility of power in a democracy where public expectations are high, economic pain is palpable, and party unity is never guaranteed. Japan now waits to see whether its next leader can break this cycle of instability—or whether the pattern of revolving-door prime ministers continues.
The writer is a former ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Asean, and the African Union, and the author of ‘The Mango Flavour: India & Asean After 10 Years of the AEP’. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.
AloJapan.com