Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation announcement on Sunday set the stage for what will be a third ruling party leadership contest in five years. Voting, which is going to be open to both Diet and rank-and-file members nationwide, is expected to take place on October 4. So who will succeed Ishiba to become the next prime minister of Japan? Here is a look at the leading contenders.
Sanae Takaichi
Though she hasn’t officially thrown her hat in the ring yet, a source close to Sanae Takaichi told Kyodo News that she has decided to run again. The early favorite, Takaichi lost out to Ishiba in last year’s presidential election. Out of the nine candidates who ran, she finished top in the first round of the vote, but was then defeated in the runoff.
After missing out on the top position, Takaichi distanced herself from Ishiba’s government. She turned down his offer to chair the key LDP General Council and didn’t take up any role in the cabinet. A hawkish figure, Takaichi often cites Margaret Thatcher as her role-model. She is keen to revise Japan’s pacifist Constitution and opposes same-sex marriage as well as dual surnames after marriage.
Shinjiro Koizumi
Like Takaichi, Shinjiro Koizumi hasn’t officially announced his candidacy yet. However, the man who finished third last year is expected to be a front-runner again. Son of the enigmatic former prime minister of Japan, Junichiro Koizumi, he’s a media savvy, yet polarizing figure. For a long time, he was seen as an inexperienced politician who lacked substance. However, that image has started to change in recent months.
In May, Koizumi took over from Taku Eto as agriculture minister. It was an appointment that brought immediate results, with the average price of rice decreasing nationwide. In June, he topped a joint opinion poll conducted by The Sankei Shimbun and FNN that asked the public who they wanted as the next prime minister. Takaichi, though, topped a similar poll taken by The Yomiuri Shimbun a month later.
Toshimitsu Motegi
The first LDP member to throw his name in the ring for the latest leadership election was Toshimitsu Motegi. He announced he was running in the election as early as Monday morning, less than 24 hours after Ishiba’s resignation speech. “Our party is in the biggest crisis since its founding,” Motegi told reporters. “We must form a united front and create a new LDP as soon as possible.”
The Harvard-educated politician was elected to the House of Representatives for the first time in 1993. He has since served the party in a variety of roles, including as foreign minister, economic revitalization minister and, more recently, as the LDP’s secretary-general. During Donald Trump’s first administration, Motegi was Japan’s representative for the tricky trade negotiations with the US. “Too tough” was reportedly how Trump described him to Shinzo Abe.
Yoshimasa Hayashi
Seen by some as a safe option, Yoshimasa Hayashi is an experienced politician who is, this year, celebrating three decades as a lawmaker. Sources close to him told The Mainichi that he intends to run in the presidential election. Speaking to reporters on Monday, though, the LDP secretary general wasn’t giving too much away. “I want to consult thoroughly with my colleagues,” he said.
Another Harvard graduate, Hayashi was named as the LDP’s chief cabinet secretary in December 2023 after Hirokazu Matsuno resigned due to the slush funds scandal. He has also served as the foreign minister, defense minister, agriculture minister and education minister. Away from politics, Hayashi plays guitar in the band Gi!nz alongside fellow LDP members. In last year’s presidential election, he finished fourth.
Takayuki Kobayashi
One place behind Hayashi in the 2024 presidential election was Takayuki Kobayashi. Following Ishiba’s resignation announcement on Sunday, the 50-year-old expressed his gratitude to the prime minister for his “hard work in taking office at a very difficult time and shouldering such a heavy responsibility.” Asked about whether he would be running in the next election, he replied, “I would like to thoroughly discuss it with my colleagues.”
Kobayashi, who describes himself as a conservative, is quite popular with the younger members of the LDP who want to revamp the party’s image. Controversially, he admitted to giving a greeting speech at a Unification Church meeting in the past. He also sent congratulatory telegrams, but claims he’s never asked the religious organization to support him in elections, nor has he received funding from the group.
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