Sports Mole previews Monday’s Canadian Open second-round match between Naomi Osaka and Ariana Arseneault, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.
Meeting for the very first time, former top-ranked women’s player Naomi Osaka will take on Canadian Ariana Arseneault in her opening match at the Canadian Open on Monday.
Osaka is coming off a round of 32 exit versus Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in three sets (6-3, 4-6, 4-6), while Arseneault won her qualifier at this tournament in straight sets against Destanee Aiava.
Match preview
Beginning on Monday, Naomi Osaka will aim to salvage something from what has been a disappointing summer on the singles tour for this once prominent player.
The 27-year-old from Japan has only made it beyond the last 16 in two singles events in 2025, with her best finish since capturing L’Open de Saint Malo in May being a round of 16 exit at the Bad Homburg Open last month.
A former two-time US Open and Australian Open singles champion, Osaka has failed to make a significant impact at this tournament, exiting in the first or second round in two of her previous three appearances.
After losing her opener at the French Open and Berlin Open, respectively, Osaka has won her last two opening contests on the singles tour, ousting Australian Talia Gibson in her first match at Wimbledon last month.
In 2025, this aggressive baseline player has been dynamite on serve, winning 79% of her service games and boasting a first serve percentage of 73.3%.
On the opposite side, though, her return game has let her down, with the woman born in Osaka winning just 28.8% of her return games this year and 35.5% of her first return points.
Feeding off the home crowd, Ariana Arseneault managed to win her opening match of this tournament thanks in large part to her impressive second serves.
The Canadian, who was born about an hour from Toronto in Richmond Hill, won 81% of her second serves against Aiava and converted all three of her break-point opportunities.
So far this year, Arseneault has won 15 of her 16 singles affairs when capturing the opening set, with her only defeat coming against Destanee Aiava at the W100 Gifu Open in Japan.
Arseneault has made it to the round of 64 or further in her previous five singles competitions, while the last time she was eliminated before that phase was at the W100 Cary Tennis Classic in North Carolina.
In her young career on the women’s tour, the Canadian has won 11 matches on the hard court when playing solo, while suffering 11 defeats at the senior level.
While she has had mixed results as a single player on the hard court, some of her greatest successes were on that surface in doubles, including a victory with partner Anna Rogers at the ITF Manchester in February.
Tournament so far
Naomi Osaka
Bye
Ariana Arseneault
Qualifier: vs. Destanee Aiava 6-3 7-6 (7-5).
We say: Osaka to win in two sets
Although the crowd should be mainly in favour of Arseneault, she has a long way to go when it comes to competing at this level, even against a player who has disappointed in recent events like Osaka.
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