Yuen Chun-ning
6th June 2025 – (Hong Kong) Summer has historically been a peak travel season, yet Japan finds itself embroiled in the continued fallout of a “major earthquake prophecy.” Local travel agencies are struggling to salvage business for Japan tours, despite offering discounts such as free child tickets. The price reductions have failed to entice travellers into taking the risk, with an anticipated 80% decline in Japan tour bookings over the summer. Fortunately, many have redirected their travel plans to mainland China, Australia, and other destinations in response to the situation.
Renowned Japanese manga artist Ryo Tatsuki’s work, “The Future I Saw,” predicted a major earthquake in Japan on the 5th of next month, sparking concerns among many in Hong Kong. This prophecy has led to cautious attitudes towards travelling to Japan. Statistics from the Japan National Tourism Organization show a surge in the number of Hong Kong visitors to Japan during the cherry blossom season this spring, with over 263,000 visitors in April, marking a 42.9% increase from the previous year.
Yuen Chun-ning, the executive director of travel agency WWPKG, disclosed the impact of the earthquake prophecy that has been circulating in Hong Kong since February. The continuous dissemination of rumours has significantly dented confidence among Hong Kong travellers heading to Japan. The uncertainty surrounding the predicted earthquake, scheduled for July, is expected to have a significant impact on self-guided travel businesses in June, July, and August, with a projected 80% reduction in bookings for Japan tours.
With a sharp decline in demand, Japan tour prices for the summer holiday period have not increased and remain comparable to off-peak rates. While airfares to and from Japan have decreased by approximately HK$2,000 annually, other costs such as dining and accommodation have seen slight increases. Despite these adjustments, the industry refrains from raising prices in a bid to attract travellers. Yuen highlighted that even without price hikes, the lack of bookings for Japan tours is a clear indication of travellers’ unwillingness to take risks, leading to the anticipated significant drop in bookings.
In response to the challenging circumstances, travellers have shown a willingness to explore alternative destinations, with many opting for trips to mainland China, including Xinjiang, as well as destinations like Australia, Dubai, and Europe. As the speculated earthquake date of July 5 approaches, there is hope for a gradual recovery in Japan tour bookings. Additionally, travel agencies are introducing early bird promotions, offering discounts to those who book autumn tours in advance, with a temporary uptick in response to these initiatives.
AloJapan.com