The Japanese Grand Prix takes place this weekend with George Russell as the odds-on F1 betting favourite to be standing atop the podium on Sunday morning.
Mercedes recorded one-two finishes at the first two races of the season, with one win apiece for Russell and Kimi Antonelli.
Japanese Grand Prix Race Winner Odds
George Russell – 4/6
Kimi Antonelli – 14/5
Lewis Hamilton – 8/1
Charles Leclerc – 8/1
Lando Norris – 22/1
Max Verstappen – 22/1
Oscar Piastri – 22/1
Ferrari’s Hope
Ferrari have led at the end of the first lap in Melbourne and Shanghai. Their lightning starts have seen them take an early lead over the slower-starting Mercedes, but the Mercs have superior race pace and have eventually used their extra power to regain the lead.
Suzuka is a tricky circuit to overtake at. It’s got lots of long, fast corners. Sure, the nimbler, new cars make it easier to follow and overtake than in previous years, but the Ferraris might be able to hold the Mercedes up more than they did in Australia and China.
Notably, Lewis Hamilton also believes he can eke more performance out of the Scuderia. The Brit has been neck-and-neck with Charles Leclerc so far this year – a second-row lockout behind the Mercedes would give Ferrari a chance to control the race from the front, but Hamilton and Leclerc may need to work together.
Gap to Red Bull and McLaren
Technical issues sidelined both McLarens in Shanghai. Oscar Piastri crashed on his way to the grid in Melbourne, meaning the Australian is yet to start a race this season.
Max Verstappen, who has dominated the last four editions of the Japanese Grand Prix, has been highly critical of the Red Bull. He’s a long way off the pace of the Mercedes and Ferraris and rightly is out at 22/1 to win this race.
McLaren feel like they’ve made some progress, but they’re nowhere near the Mercs. The gap after this Grand Prix could give them an opportunity to get a bit closer, while Piastri will just be hoping to get some racing laps under his belt.
Japanese Grand Prix 2026 Prediction
Best Bet: British Driver to Win and Max Verstappen Top Six Finish (Evens)
Russell, Lando Norris, or Hamilton to win and a Verstappen top-six finish feels like sensational value. Hamilton has been very competitive in the first two Grands Prix of the year.
There’s a good chance Mercedes disappear into the distance, and Russell has been marginally better than Antonelli so far this season. His experience also stands him in good stead against his younger teammate. If McLaren make a remarkable step forward, Norris allows us to cover another base.
Verstappen loves Suzuka. He finished sixth in Melbourne and has once again had much better pace than his teammate, Isack Hadjar. It’s not out of the question that the Dutchman is on the podium if the Mercedes and Ferraris get in each other’s way.
Previous Japanese Grand Prix Winners
2025 – Max Verstappen
2024 – Max Verstappen
2023 – Max Verstappen
2022 – Max Verstappen
2019 – Valtteri Bottas
2018 – Lewis Hamilton
2017 – Lewis Hamilton
2016 – Nico Rosberg
2015 – Lewis Hamilton
2014 – Lewis Hamilton
2013 – Sebastian Vettel
2012 – Sebastian Vettel
2011 – Jenson Button
2010 – Sebastian Vettel
Most Japanese Grand Prix Wins
Michael Schumacher – 6 wins
Lewis Hamilton – 5 wins
Sebastian Vettel – 4 wins
Max Verstappen – 4 wins
Gerhard Berger – 2 wins
Ayrton Senna – 2 wins
Damon Hill – 2 wins
Fernando Alonso – 2 wins
Mika Häkkinen – 2 wins
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
AloJapan.com