India has overtaken Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy – and officials hope to pass Germany within three years, the government’s end-of-year economic review calculates.
Official confirmation, however, depends on data due in 2026 when final annual GDP figures are released.
The International Monetary Fund suggests India will surpass Japan next year.
“India is among the world’s fastest-growing major economies and is well-positioned to sustain this momentum,” read the government economic briefing note, which was released late Monday.
The review said India’s gross domestic product has already reached about $4.18 trillion (€3.55 trillion) and is projected to reach $7.3 trillion by 2030.
That means India would trail only the United States and China in economic heft.
India’s real GDP grew 8.2% in the second quarter of the 2025–26 financial year, up from 7.8% in the previous quarter and marking a six-quarter high.
Growth was said to have been driven primarily by domestic demand, with particularly strong private consumption, despite continued global trade and policy uncertainty.
In income terms, the gap with advanced economies remains wide. India’s GDP per capita stood at $2,694 in 2024, according to the latest World Bank data — about 12 times lower than Japan’s $32,487 and roughly 20 times below Germany’s $56,103.
|Photo: Aditya Indranil/Imago/Nur Photo
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