Japan’s relationship with China has entered a deep freeze following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November remarks that Tokyo could intervene militarily in a Taiwan crisis, with ties showing few signs of warming anytime soon.
But a deeper look reveals that rather than a mere flare-up, which has at times punctuated the relationship, the latest deterioration of ties has highlighted that a dangerous new equilibrium between the two countries is emerging — one that will test each other’s resolve, especially in the year ahead.
“What began as a diplomatic spat over Taiwan is spiraling into something structural,” said Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp, a Japan expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The two Asian powers are edging away from coexistence in a rules-based regional order and towards strategic competition punctuated by periodic crises.”

AloJapan.com