TOKYO – With her Cabinet maintaining high popularity since its launch a few months ago, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to weigh the timing for dissolving the House of Representatives for a snap election in 2026.
Political analysts say high Cabinet approval ratings are a precondition for Takaichi, who became Japan’s first female prime minister on Oct. 21, to consider dissolving the lower chamber, but warn that diplomatic and economic risks could undermine public support.
All eyes are on whether Takaichi can deliver visible achievements before a general election, with her remarks on a Taiwan emergency sharply straining relations with China and her economic policies leading to a spike in Japan’s long-term interest rates.
The timing could come either in March, just after the initial budget for the fiscal year starting April is enacted, or in June, after the ordinary parliamentary session ends, the experts said.
Even after Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party formed a new coalition with the center-right Japan Innovation Party in October, the ruling camp has faced difficulties in managing Diet affairs as it maintains a razor-thin majority in the lower house.
The bloc remains a minority in the less powerful House of Councillors, where the LDP suffered a major setback in the July election under Takaichi’s predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, forcing him to work with opposition parties to pass bills.
Support for Takaichi’s Cabinet has remained high at around 70 percent, Japanese media outlets showed, fueling speculation that she could dissolve the lower house at any moment to regain a comfortable majority.
At a press conference after a 58-day extraordinary Diet session, which ended in mid-December, Takaichi said she has “no time to consider” dissolving the lower chamber, signaling a negative stance toward an early election.
Hiroshi Shiratori, a political science professor at Hosei University, said it is possible Takaichi could dissolve the lower house at the outset of the ordinary Diet session set to begin on Jan. 23 if approval ratings remain high.
But such a hasty dissolution would be unrealistic as there would be “no just cause” to do so, Shiratori said, adding that recent diplomatic tensions between Japan and China could eventually dampen the Cabinet’s standing.
On Nov. 7, Takaichi suggested in parliament that an attack on Taiwan could constitute an existential threat to Japan and potentially trigger a response from its Self-Defense Forces to support the United States if Washington backs the democratic island.
The remarks infuriated China as it regards Taiwan as a renegade province to be reunified with the mainland, prompting Beijing to levy a raft of measures that would hit Japan’s economy, including a travel advisory urging its nationals not to visit the neighboring country.
Shiratori predicts the fallout on the Japanese economy, buoyed by inbound demand in the years since the COVID-19 pandemic, will emerge in the first half of 2026, casting a shadow over Cabinet approval ratings.
“The economy may become the Achilles’ heel of the Takaichi administration, which pursues ‘responsible yet aggressive’ fiscal policies,” he said, citing her lack of preparedness for possible adverse effects from future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Given that the budget for fiscal 2026 is likely to clear parliament in the spring, Takaichi could weigh whether to dissolve the lower house after the Golden Week holidays from late April to early May, Shiratori said.
Koji Nakakita, a professor of politics at Chuo University, said Takaichi might call a snap election after the budget passes, but added it is more plausible she would wait until she has attained a “certain degree of progress in realizing” her policies.
During the upcoming 150-day ordinary Diet session, deliberations are expected to advance on bills tied to Takaichi’s flagship policies, including the creation of a national intelligence secretariat and tighter rules on land purchases by nonresident foreigners.
After the session, the LDP’s ties with its former coalition partner Komeito may also be key to Takaichi’s decision on whether to dissolve the lower house, said Jun Iio, a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
Backed by Japan’s largest lay Buddhist organization, Soka Gakkai, Komeito is widely believed to command about 10,000 to 20,000 bloc votes in each single-seat lower house constituency, votes that have supported the LDP through their electoral alliance.
The staunchly pacifist Komeito ended its 26-year partnership with the LDP less than a week after Takaichi, a security hawk with conservative views, won the ruling party’s presidential race on Oct. 4.
Still, Komeito has taken a cooperative stance toward the ruling camp on a case-by-case basis, voting with another opposition force, the Democratic Party for the People, to pass a supplementary budget for fiscal 2025.
In the next general election, Komeito could adopt a “selective” approach, deciding which LDP candidates to support on an individual basis, meaning lawmakers close to Takaichi might lose the former alliance’s backing if ties with her worsen, Iio said.
AloJapan.com