Japan could develop its own nuclear weapons within 3 years if it wanted to, experts claim. This would be possible because Japan already possesses the raw materials and expertise to do so.
According to reports, Japan has large stockpiles of separated plutonium and runs one of the world’s most advanced civil nuclear industries. In fact, in 2014, Japan already possessed 9 tons of plutonium, which would be enough to create around 5,000 nuclear bombs.
It also had around 1.2 tons of enriched uranium. “Japan already has the technical capability, and has had it since the 1980s,” an unnamed Japanese official told NBC News. The same official told NBC News that Japan could likely build weapons very quickly once the political decision to proceed was given.
The nation also possesses missile, space-launch, and precision engineering capabilities, and has an elite scientific and industrial capacity.
In nuclear terms, Japan is a classic “latent nuclear power,” meaning it is a country that doesn’t have nuclear weapons but could acquire them quickly. The “under three years” estimate includes things like designing a basic warhead and mating it to an existing delivery system.
Japan could go nuclear very quickly
Such development would also include conducting a limited (possibly untested) deployment. It is important to note that this claim is not about building a Cold War-scale arsenal, but rather about acquiring its own limited nuclear capability.
The prediction also comes after former US diplomat Henry Kissinger’s 2023 warning that Japan was “heading toward becoming a nuclear power in five years.” He also warned that the post-WW2 order in Asia is also eroding, with certain nations (like China and Russia) becoming increasingly aggressive.
Further to this prediction, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has also hinted at possible legal changes to Japan’s three non-nuclear principles. “Japan should possess nuclear weapons,” Takaichi told Asahi Shimbun.
That said, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara has also reiterated the country’s commitment to its long-standing non-nuclear policy (no possession, no production, no introduction). On December 18, Kihara said that Japan’s nuclear policy remains unchanged.
Times are a-changing
Japan is a special case when it comes to nuclear weapons, as it is the only nation on Earth to have been affected by them. During World War 2, two of Japan’s cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, were obliterated by nuclear bombs dropped by the United States.
Since then, nuclear weapons have been a very emotive topic in the nation. Discussions of the potential domestic development of such weapons are, then, a huge change in mindset for Japan, albeit not a declaration of intent.
While Japan is not secretly developing them, it is a sign that significant changes are afoot in the region. Should Japan ever decide to make its own nuclear weapons, it would be a major shock for the region.
It would also likely worsen diplomatic relations with other regional powers like China, which is one of the world’s major nuclear powers. China is also very nervous about the growing Japanese military powers, given its history with Japan during World War 2.
AloJapan.com