Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025
0850 JST (2350 GMT/1850 EST Tuesday, Dec. 16) The Ministry of Finance releases November trade.
Mace News median: exports +2.6% y/y (range: +0.4% to +5.0%) vs. Oct. +3.6%; imports +0.5% y/y (range: -1.4% to +3.9%) vs. Oct +0.7%; trade surplus ¥47.60 billion (range: a deficit of ¥17.00 billion to a surplus of ¥128.30 billion) vs. a revised ¥226.07 billion deficit in October 2025; ¥499.95 billion deficit in October 2024
TOKYO (MaceNews) – Japan’s export values are expected to rise for the third consecutive year-on-year increase in November, supported by robust demand from Europe and Asia and aided by the yen’s continued weakness. Still, shipments to the U.S. likely remained sluggish as Trump’s tariff policy continues to weigh on Japanese auto exports. Nevertheless, the Japanese trade balance is projected to return to surplus for the first time in five months.
Export values are forecast to increase 2.6% on the year in November following a 3.6% gain in October, when exports to both Europe and Asia rose for the third straight month, while shipments to the U.S. fell for the seventh consecutive month. Exports in November are seen increasing in items including computer chips, electronic components, and pharmaceuticals while the impact of the U.S. tariffs is expected to undermine automobile exports.
Import values are also expected to rise for the third straight month, with an estimated 0.5% increase in November following a 0.7% gain in October and a 3.3% rebound in September.
Taking these factors together, the trade balance is projected to post its first surplus in five months, estimated at a modest surplus of ¥47.6 billion after a revised ¥226.07 billion deficit in October and a ¥499.95 billion deficit in October 2024.
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