Japan study on beech nut suggests increased bear encounters in 2027

AKITA, Japan – Northeast Japan may see a rise in bears approaching humans again in 2027, as a good beech nut yield expected in 2026 suggests a poor harvest the following year, according to a research center analyzing links between bear sightings and their primary food source.

In Akita Prefecture, which saw more than 50 casualties from bears this year, good and bad years for beech nuts have alternated since 2021, with a poor year leading to a rise in bears venturing into populated areas, said the Akita Prefecture Forestry Research and Training Center.

In a year of plentiful yields, bears tend to become more prolific in breeding, leading to an increase in their numbers, but when the yield is poor, more bears come near human dwellings in search of food, the center said.

The center used its own benchmarks in analyzing the budding status of beechnuts at five areas within Akita Prefecture since 2002. High in nutrition, the beech nut, a type of acorn, ripens around October every year.

It was generally said that a strong harvest of beechnuts occurs once every five to seven years, but after a hiatus of several years since 2005, good years were seen in 2013, 2015 and 2018. Those years were then followed by years of bad harvests.

The study further showed that the years 2022 and 2024 saw exceptionally high ripening of beech nuts compared with the previous years, the center said.

“In recent years, a good harvest year is 100 percent followed by a bad harvest year,” said center official Satoru Wada, adding that while it is unclear why the beech nuts’ production cycle pattern has changed, it could be affected by global warming and intense summer heat.

Wada also warned of bears that emerge from hibernation in the spring following a poor harvest, saying they would be looking to feed on fallen beech nuts but are likely to find there are not enough.

In early spring of 2026, “plants in the mountains are yet to have sprouted, and without beech nuts, there is little for bears to eat,” Wada said, warning of possible human-bear encounters.