David Johnson on Calandagan's bid for glory

Timeform Lead Flat Analyst David Johnson previews Calandagan’s bid for Japan Cup glory on Sunday morning.

Although the Jumps season is in full swing now, us Flatties aren’t quite ready to hibernate until the Lincoln just yet, especially as Timeform’s two highest-rated horses in the world will be in action again this side of Christmas and the accolade of Timeform’s Horse of the Year, which will form part of the 2025 Timeform Awards announced in January remains firmly up for grabs.

Ka Ying Rising will headline Hong Kong’s International meeting in December, but more immediately Calandagan bids to add further polish to a CV that already includes three Group 1 wins this season, in the Japan Cup at 6.40am on Sunday morning, live on both Racing TV and Sky Sports Racing.

Although taking on a strong numerical challenge from the home team, Calandagan looks a clear form choice on what he has achieved in Europe this year, a master rating of 133 (or 145 when adjusted for weight carried specific to Sunday’s conditions) for his win in the Champion Stakes sees him rated as Timeform’s leading horse in Europe and the highest-rated horse in the world over middle distances, with upwards of 8 lb in hand of his rivals on Sunday.

It’s been something of a season of two halves for Calandagan with short odds defeats in Dubai, and in particular the Coronation Cup, raising question marks over his attitude, but three wins since have allowed him to bat them away and he was notably impressive when getting the better of Ombudsman, Almaqam and Delacroix in the Champion Stakes.

A high cruising speed, and potent turn of foot have been weapons he’s utilised to particular good effect on his last two wins and they should again stand him in good stead for how the Japan Cup is likely to be run. If he reproduces his best, it’s hard to see him being beaten and given his form advantage, it’s a surprise he’s not favourite.

That position in the market is held by home challenger Masquerade Ball who is a relatively lightly-raced 3-y-o that is going the right way and he improved on placed efforts in the Japanese Guineas and Derby (behind Croix du Nord) when winning the Tenno Sho last time by three-quarters-of-a-length from Museum Mile, with the field in a bunch in behind. That form definitely needs building on and bigger threats on form look to be posed by horses that are a bit more familiar to a European audience.

Danon Decile already holds a victory over Calandagan (in the Sheema Classic) this season and that form is rated superior to any of the other home-trained contingent. He was last seen disappointing in a muddling Juddmonte International at York but Daryz has certainly shown since a poor run there shouldn’t be held against him.

Shin Emperor is next in on adjusted ratings and earned that figure when dead-heating for second behind Do Deuce in last year’s Japan Cup but his form in 2025 hasn’t been so good and he needs to bounce back from a below-par sixth in the Irish Champion Stakes last time.

Croix du Nord is another on a retrieval mission. He had Masquerade Ball behind when winning the Japanese Derby in June and stepped up on that when narrowly holding off Daryz in the Prix du Prince D’Orange at Longchamp in September. He wasn’t seen to best effect from a wide draw when well beaten in the Arc last time, but has fared much better with the draw on this occasion, breaking from stall 2.

A victory for Calandagan would be a first for a European-trained horse in 20 years, foreign raiders having drawn a blank in the race since Alkaased held off Heart’s Cry and Zenno Rob Roy back in 2005 for Luca Cumani and Frankie Dettori. 53 European-trained runners have tried and failed since, including Goliath, August Rodin and Fantastic Moon in 2024.

Such a record is a far cry from the race’s infancy that was inaugurated in 1981 as 14 of the first 24 runnings were won by foreign-trained horses, including eight Europeans and Calandagan is bidding to become only the second French-trained winner of the race following the success of Le Glorieux in 1987 for Robert Collet.

The domination of the home contingent reflects the increasing strength of Japanese racing on the global stage in the last quarter of a century alongside the huge prize money it offers, the race now worth over double what it was back in 2014 and first prize money in excess of £5m to the winner makes it second only to The Everest in terms of most valuable races on turf.