USDJPY – Daily Chart – 091125 – Interventions Politics and the BoJ
Follow our real-time updates to stay ahead of USD/JPY market developments.
USD/JPY Outlook: Economic Indicators and the BoJ
Bullish Yen Scenario: Strong Japanese data, support for 5% wage hikes in 2026, intervention threats, or a hawkish BoJ rhetoric. These scenarios could push USD/JPY toward 150.
Bearish Yen Scenario: Weak data, low support for 5% wage hikes, or a dovish BoJ commentary. These scenarios may drive the pair toward 155.
Although Japanese economic data, BoJ forward guidance, and intervention jitters will influence yen demand, traders should closely track updates from Capitol Hill, US data, and Fed chatter.
Labor Market Data, the ISM Services PMI, the Fed, and Capitol Hill in Focus
As Japan’s policy direction remains uncertain, US data will set the tone for cross-market sentiment. The US government shutdown dragged into its 39th day on Sunday, November 9, further delaying crucial labor market and inflation reports.
A continued Senate impasse through the week would leave traders with Fed speakers and Challenger job cuts to consider. Assuming the government reopens, key data releases for the week ahead include:
ADP Employment Change Weekly (November 11).
US Annual Inflation Rate: (November 13): Economists forecast the inflation rate to rise from 3% in September to 3.1% in October.
Initial Jobless Claims (November 13): Expected to rise from 218k week ending September 20 to 260k week ending November 8.
Retail Sales (November 14): Expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month in October after rising 0.6% in August.
Producer Prices (November 14): Forecast to rise 2.7% in October, up from 2.6% in August.
US Data and Fed Speakers to Fuel US Dollar Trends
Softer-than-expected US inflation, rising job cuts, increasing initial jobless claims, and weaker retail sales could fuel bets on a December Fed rate cut. A more dovish Fed rate path could push USD/JPY toward 150 amid lingering expectations of a BoJ rate hike.
Hotter-than-expected US inflation, lower job cuts, falling jobless claims, and stronger retail sales could cool bets on a December Fed rate cut. A more hawkish Fed policy stance may drive USD/JPY toward 155.
Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ speeches for views on the economy, inflation, and the timing of further rate cuts. FOMC members Michael Barr, Stephen Miran, John Williams, Anna Paulson, Christopher Waller, Beth Hammack, Jeffrey Schmid, and Lorie Logan are due to speak.
Short-term Forecast:
Bullish US Dollar Scenario: Strong US economic data and hawkish Fed rhetoric may send USD/JPY toward 155.
Bearish US Dollar Scenario: Weak US data and dovish Fed commentary could push USD/JPY toward 150.
USD/JPY Price Action
Daily Chart
On the daily chart, USD/JPY remained above the 50- and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reaffirming a bullish bias.
A break above the November 2025 high of 154.483 could open the door to testing 155 and the February 2025 high of 155.880. A sustained move through 155.880 may enable the bulls to target the 156.884 resistance level.
On the downside, a break below 153 could expose the 50-day EMA and the 150 psychological support level. If breached, 149.358 would be the next key support level.
AloJapan.com