Sanae Takaichi, 64 years old and recently elected as President of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), was appointed as the country’s first-ever female Prime Minister on 21 October. While her gender has made headlines, her first and most urgent task is foreign policy, especially relations with the Trump administration.
Takaichi certainly stands out in a country in which politics are heavily male-dominated. Yet, she is also distinctive because she does not come from a political dynasty but, in her own words, grew up in an ordinary dual-income household. First elected to parliament in 1993, she subsequently served as Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications and later as Minister of State for Economic Security. Known as an admirer of Margaret Thatcher, she is most often portrayed as nationalistic as for social and historical views, and as hawkish in terms of defence and security policy.
That Takaichi is leaning to the right of the political spectrum is not a secret. She was a protégée of Shinzō Abe, Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister (2006–7 and 2012–20), assassinated in 2022. Mirroring Abe, Takaichi has appealed to the need to respect Japan’s traditions and culture as a “Beautiful Country” with a rich history and culture.
She has also considered it her political duty to visit the Yasukuni Shrine to mourn those who died in service to the country, deploring that this is seen as an impediment to constructive relations with Japan’s neighbours. Furthermore, similar to Abe, Takaichi believes that Japanese school textbooks are filled with a self-deprecating view of history, emphasising Japan’s dark past while omitting achievements Japan should be proud of. Her view of the country’s education system as well chimes with Abe’s in the sense that education, in her view, should strongly foster love for one’s country.
Stronger Stance on Defence
The current LDP–Japan Innovation Party (JIP, Nippon ishin no kai) coalition as a whole will likely result in a stronger stance on defence and security. This would need to materialise first of all by further reinforcing the alliance with the US and implementing, in her words, a “truly integrated US–Japan alliance deterrence strategy.” But Japan will likely also strengthen its own military capabilities, including drones and nuclear-powered submarines, and further increase the defence budget. On 23 October, Takaichi already pledged to move up the planned five-year defence spending to 2% of GDP from the fiscal year of 2027 to the end of the fiscal year 2025. In addition, she will revise Japan’s three key security and defence documents—the National Security Strategy, the National Defence Strategy, and the Defence Buildup Programme, all updated most recently in 2022.
As Japan sees itself surrounded by Russia (which possesses the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world), China (which is expected to increase its number of nuclear warheads fivefold over the next decade), and North Korea (which continues to forcibly conduct nuclear tests and missile launches, the latest on the day following Takaichi’s appointment), the Prime Minister strongly argues for the fundamental need to strengthen Japan’s national defence capabilities. In this context, she is also a proponent of revising the constitution in order to formally recognise the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) as a national military. At the same time, echoing Shinzō Abe, revising the charter would mark the first time in Japan’s history that a constitution is created by the Japanese people, embodying the spirit of Japan and symbolising the end of Japan’s deliberately chosen submission to a great power, the US. Accomplishing this, however, will be extremely difficult as a two-third majority of all members in both houses of the Diet is needed, in addition to a majority vote in a nation-wide referendum.
Relations with the US, China, South Korea, and Europe
Relations with the US ally under the administration of President Donald Trump are paramount. Takaichi’s strong stance on a more autonomous defence, increased deterrence, eased restrictions on the export of defence equipment, and tough stance on immigration will likely appeal to Trump. Takaichi will travel to Malaysia to attend the ASEAN summit on 26 October, followed by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit on 31 October in South Korea. In between these two events, President Trump will visit Japan for three days, 27-29 October, including a summit with Takaichi. The new Japanese Prime Minister will likely aim to woo Trump by honouring the tariffs and investment agreements between the Trump administration and the government of the previous Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, comprising 15% tariffs on Japanese imports and a pledge of $550 billion of Japanese investments in the US.
Takaichi’s strong stance on a more autonomous defence, increased deterrence, eased restrictions on the export of defence equipment, and tough stance on immigration will likely appeal to Trump
Another crucial task ahead is to manage relations with neighbours China and South Korea. In China, the reaction to Takaichi’s election was wary, cautioning her about historical sensitivities, Taiwan commitments and regional stability. With China Takaichi will likely follow in the footsteps of Abe and play her cards very pragmatically, engaging China economically in the region wherever possible, while competing strategically at the global level. In Taipei in late April this year, she proposed that Japan, Taiwan, Europe, Australia, and India should form a “quasi-security alliance.” South Korean media referred to Takaichi as a “Female Abe,” expressing concerns about a resurfacing of the wartime history problem, but also expected the continuation of steady and positive relations. With South Korea, Takaichi has already announced that she would sustain solid bilateral relations, especially in light of the tightening trilateral bonds with Washington.
For Europe, Takaichi’s election could be good news. The concept of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) region, based on an international rules-based order, was launched under Prime Minister Abe in 2016. Takaichi will likely double down on Abe’s pet project and further aim to strengthen relations with other like-minded countries supporting FOIP across the world, including in Europe. Concretely, this could include two things: more cooperation under the EU–Japan Security and Defence Partnership, including defence industry dialogue, maritime security and a forthcoming Security of Information Agreement (SIA); and second, a renewed focus on economic security through the Japan–EU Competitiveness Alliance, including cooperation in supply chain resilience and the digital realm (comprising Arctic connectivity and submarine cable projects).
Domestic Expectations
Looking back on the recent shifts in Japan’s political landscape that accompanied Takaichi’s rise to power, three things stand out.
First, within the LDP, the right-leaning side of the party defeated the more moderate and liberal factions, exemplified by former Prime Minister Ishiba. The LDP was deeply divided following a year in which the LDP lost the majority in both houses of the Diet. The party was deeply tainted by the so-called slush fund scandal involving the misuse and misreporting of campaign funds by LDP members. One of Takaichi’s first main tasks was, therefore, to reunite the party.
Second, the decision by the Kōmeitō (Clean Government Party), a social-conservative party, to part ways with the LDP is a watershed moment in Japan’s political history, after having been in an alliance with the ruling party for 26 years. Officially, Kōmeitō could not reconcile itself with Takaichi’s stance towards the “money and politics” scandal, her frequent visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, and her hardline stance on foreign nationals in Japan.
Third, support for the LDP from the JIP, an Osaka-based centre-right party, will probably steer the coalition to a more conservative policy. Takaichi has agreed to a number of points on the JIP’s reformist promises, including a decrease in the number of parliamentarians, the lowering of the consumption tax on food for the next two years, and the designation of Osaka as Japan’s secondary capital, in order to support Tokyo’s functions, especially in the case of a major natural disaster hitting the capital.
The new Prime Minister is known to be market-friendly and growth-oriented
As for the economy, the new Prime Minister is known to be market-friendly and growth-oriented. One task will be to protect the livelihood of working people from inflation and rising prices. One day in office, she has already launched an economic stimulus package including the abolishment of a 50-year-old gasoline tax, support for SMEs, and investments in growth industries, such as AI and semiconductors.
The first-ever female Prime Minister will likely not go all-in as for gender politics. As a writing on the wall, Takaichi appointed only two other female members in her cabinet of 19. In her career, she has always opposed gender-based quota systems, including female cabinet quotas. She is a strong proponent of an environment in which both men and women can compete on equal footing and be evaluated based on performance, not gender. She has also strongly opposed husbands and wives having separate surnames, arguing that, rather than a personal identifier, the surname should be seen as a symbol of familial unity. Even so, in order to tackle Japan’s declining labor force against the background of a rapidly ageing society, Takaichi will actively need to promote gender equality in the workplace and integrate women in the labor market.
This needs to happen at the same time as enticing women to bear more children in order to address Japan’s shrinking population. For this, there is a need to reform family support measures such as day care and parental leave. Relatedly, Japan needs skilled workers from abroad, especially in elderly care. However, Takaichi will likely advocate tightening policies for foreign nationals in Japan, including their rights to purchase real estate in the country.
Takaichi’s biggest challenge will be to stay in power and break the pattern of revolving-door
Takaichi’s biggest challenge will be to stay in power and break the pattern of revolving-door, short-lived prime ministerial tenures. To do this, she will need to maintain LDP unity, achieve compromises with coalition partner JIP, revitalise the economy, and apply pragmatic conservative leadership in maintaining regional stability. Not least importantly, she will need to cultivate a solid personal bond with US President Trump, following the example of her mentor, Shinzō Abe.
Views expressed in ICDS publications are those of the author(s).
AloJapan.com