Oct 25, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: Japan – Smoked Pacific, Atlantic And Danube Salmon – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.
After a period of decline, Japan’s smoked salmon market is expected to begin a gradual upward trend, with a forecasted volume CAGR of +1.5% leading to 198 tons by 2035 and a value CAGR of +3.0% reaching $4.6M. In 2024, consumption and imports saw a slight rebound to 168 tons and 169 tons respectively, though market value shrank to $3.3M. Chile, China, and Poland are the dominant import suppliers, while Japan’s minimal exports are primarily destined for Hong Kong, the Philippines, and Thailand. The average import price in 2024 was $20,225 per ton, and the export price was $32,045 per ton.
Key Findings
Market forecast for a slight recovery with a +1.5% volume CAGR and +3.0% value CAGR through 2035Consumption and imports rebounded in 2024 after a four-year declineChile, China, and Poland are the leading import suppliers, accounting for 64% of volumeAverage import price fell by -17.6% to $20,225 per ton in 2024Exports are minimal, with Hong Kong SAR and the Philippines as the main destinationsMarket Forecast
Driven by rising demand for smoked salmon in Japan, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.5% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 198 tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $4.6M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
ConsumptionJapan’s Consumption of Smoked Pacific, Atlantic And Danube Salmon
In 2024, consumption of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon was finally on the rise to reach 168 tons after four years of decline. Overall, consumption, however, saw a pronounced reduction. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 822 tons. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of the consumption remained at a lower figure.
The value of the smoked salmon market in Japan shrank to $3.3M in 2024, which is down by -13.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded a perceptible curtailment. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $13M. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of the market remained at a lower figure.
ImportsJapan’s Imports of Smoked Pacific, Atlantic And Danube Salmon
In 2024, supplies from abroad of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon was finally on the rise to reach 169 tons after four years of decline. In general, imports, however, saw a perceptible shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 159% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 823 tons. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, smoked salmon imports fell notably to $3.4M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a pronounced decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when imports increased by 152% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $13M. From 2018 to 2024, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.
Imports By Country
Chile (47 tons), China (40 tons) and Poland (21 tons) were the main suppliers of smoked salmon imports to Japan, together comprising 64% of total imports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +10.0%), while imports for the other leaders experienced mixed trend patterns.
In value terms, Chile ($771K), China ($749K) and Poland ($576K) were the largest smoked salmon suppliers to Japan, with a combined 61% share of total imports.
China, with a CAGR of +10.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced mixed trend patterns.
Import Prices By Country
In 2024, the average smoked salmon import price amounted to $20,225 per ton, shrinking by -17.6% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.7%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 an increase of 31%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $24,537 per ton, and then declined rapidly in the following year.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($33,060 per ton), while the price for Sweden ($10,413 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland (+7.5%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.
ExportsJapan’s Exports of Smoked Pacific, Atlantic And Danube Salmon
In 2024, the amount of smoked pacific, atlantic and danube salmon exported from Japan surged to 1.1 tons, with an increase of 259% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at 2 tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, smoked salmon exports skyrocketed to $35K in 2024. In general, exports, however, recorded a pronounced decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when exports increased by 298% against the previous year. The exports peaked at $59K in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.
Exports By Country
Hong Kong SAR (627 kg), the Philippines (391 kg) and Thailand (60 kg) were the main destinations of smoked salmon exports from Japan, with a combined 99.9% share of total exports.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by the Philippines (with a CAGR of +30.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Hong Kong SAR ($17K), the Philippines ($15K) and Thailand ($2K) constituted the largest markets for smoked salmon exported from Japan worldwide.
The Philippines, with a CAGR of +34.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced mixed trend patterns.
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the average smoked salmon export price amounted to $32,045 per ton, dropping by -18.2% against the previous year. Overall, the export price recorded a pronounced decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 an increase of 149% against the previous year. The export price peaked at $45,300 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.
Average prices varied somewhat for the major foreign markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Philippines ($39,097 per ton), while the average price for exports to Hong Kong SAR ($27,501 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to the Philippines (+2.7%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced mixed trend patterns.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
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