It’s time for WTA Tokyo’s round of 16. There are some really, really good matches in the round of 16, and there will be no easy wins for anyone. These are my best bets. Please share your thoughts in the comment section.
WTA Tokyo Round of 16
Bencic – Gracheva: Time 03:00
H2H: 0-0
Our featured match is Belinda Bencic vs Varvara Gracheva. Bencic is 26-12 on a hardcourt in 2025, and Gracheva is 20-13 herself. Bencic also has a tournament title this year, winning WTA Abu Dhabi earlier this year. She also made the semifinals of Wimbledon. These two ladies have never met before, and they’ve had similar success as of late. Except for the fact that Gracheva won her last match and Bencic lost hers, they literally have the same record and results in every one of their matches. A former finalist in Tokyo, Bencic is trying to return to her former glory.
Best Bet to Make
Bencic is nearly a 3.2-1 favorite in this match. The bookies don’t care about Gracheva’s three-match winning streak. They see Bencic as one of the best players in this tournament, and very much a contender to win the whole thing. When Bencic does lose, it’s usually to top talent. In other words, she plays to her level, and rarely loses to opponents who she ought to be beating. Gracheva lost to someone ranked No. 173 in the World in the qualifiers of Beijing. Give me Bencic 2:0 at 1.83 on Bet365.
That being said, Bencic winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Bencic winning 2:0 @1.83 @Bet365
Kessler – Noskova: Time 03:00
H2H: 1-1
McCartney Kessler and Linda Noskova are 1-1 in their rivalry, with both games going three sets on a hardcourt, and both were second-round matches. Kessler won their 2025 WTA Miami meeting after a tiebreak in the third set. The second set and third set were way more competitive than the first. Noskova won their 2024 WTA Australian Open match in three sets. Both women are having similar years on a hardcourt, and both have been here in the round of 16 at WTA Tokyo once before, in ’24 for Kessler and ’23 for Noskova.
Best Bet to Make
The books favor Noskova, and I imagine it comes down to the fact that she’s 8-2 in her last ten matches while Kessler is 6-4 in hers. Noskova is also losing to top talent. The lowest-ranked player she’s lost to in that stretch was no. 63 in the World. While Kessler is also losing to top talent, she doesn’t seem to be sprinkling in the wins like Noskova. Noskova has been in two finals and a semifinal this year. It only seems a matter of time before she puts it together.
That being said, Noskova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Noskova winning @1.766 @Betfair
Joint – Muchova: Time 03:00
H2H: 0-0
Maya Joint vs Karolina Muchova is my favorite match of the round of 16. Both Joint and Muchova have been really fun to watch this year. Joint has quickly proven that she’s going to be a force to be reckoned with as she ages and improves. Hell, she’s dangerous now. Muchova is also one those players who is capable of putting on a show. For whatever reason, the tennis gods routinely give her some of the most ridiculously tough draws consistently, and somehow, she always makes do. Joint already has two titles this year, and a win in Tokyo would give her a hardcourt title, a clay title, and a grass title. Not bad for a 19-year-old.
Best Bet to Make
Despite having almost twice as many wins as Muchova in 2025, Joint is the underdog in this match by about 3-1 odds. Both women are 6-4 in their last ten matches, so you’re not going to find any answers there unless you dig a bit deeper. When you look at the losses, it gets a bit clearer. Muchova is losing to Diana Shnaider, Magda Frech, Amanda Anisimova, and Naomi Osaka. Joints losses were Iga Swiatek, Sonay Kartal, Katerina Siniakova, and Ajla Tomljanovic. There are levels to this and Muchova seems to be at a higher one, at least right now.
That being said, Muchova winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Muchova winning 2: @2.0 @Bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
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