It’s time for WTA Tokyo first round action. There’s plenty of top talent in this tournament and the one in Guangzhou, China. For now, we’re focusing on the action in Japan. These are my best bets. Please share your thoughts in the comment section.
WTA Tokyo
Fernandez – Sakkari: Time 03:30
H2H: 1-3
Our first match is Leylah Fernandez vs Maria Sakkari. Fernandez is coming off a tournament victory in Osaka against Tereza Valentova in a very back-and-forth match that went all three sets. She’s riding a five-match winning streak heading into Tokyo, and should be considered one of the front-runners to win this tournament. First she has to get past Maria Sakkari, who has already beaten her three out of the last four times they played. Sakkari has been struggling recently, winning a few and then losing a few. Already in possession of an overall record that is beneath .500, Sakkari desperately needs to win here to have any hope of finishing the year on a positive note. Her World ranking is probably in jeopardy because she has only made a total of two quarterfinal appearances all year.
Best Bet to Make
The books couldn’t care less about Sakkari’s overall record against Fernandez. They have Fernandez at about a 2-1 favorite, and I completely agree. Not only did Fernandez win their only match this year in straight sets, she only lost two games in the process. There’s no doubt that fatigue may be a factor, as Fernandez has played a lot of tennis over the last few weeks, but she’s also at the age where boundless energy is part of the package. Oh, to be young and immensely talented. Give me Fernandez 2:0 at 2.15 on bet-at-home, and I’ll be a happy Dutchman.
That being said, Fernandez winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Fernandez winning 2:0 @2.15 @bet-at-home
Mboko – Andreescu: Time 05:00
H2H: 0-0
Victoria Mboko vs Bianca Andreescu is a rather interesting match from a betting perspective. One player is in the Top 25 in the World, and the other isn’t even in the Top 170. One player has a tournament title in their last ten matches, and the other hasn’t won a title this decade. Mboko is 6-4 in her last ten matches, and Andreescu is 5-5. That said, Mboko is in the midst of a 4-game losing streak following her victory over Naomi Osaka in the final at WTA Montreal.
Best Bet to Make
Even with Mboko having all the positives going for her, that four-match losing streak is hanging over her head like the Sword of Damocles. The books have her as the underdog in this match by about .25 points, on average. I guess they see Andreescu’s two-match losing streak as more impressive than Mboko’s four-match streak. It makes even less sense when you realize that Andreescu is 2-4 on a hardcourt this year, but Mboko is 19-6, with three hardcourt tournament titles in 2025. Give me the underdog.
That being said, Mboko winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Mboko winning @2.00 @Bet365
Sonobe – Bartunkova: Time 06:30
H2H: 0-0
Watana Sonobe vs Nikola Bartunkova rounds out our coverage. While neither player is in the Top 100 in the World, the match is still interesting enough. Sonobe enters the match at 19-14 on the year, and 17-10 on a hardcourt. By comparison, Bartunkova is 54-16, and 8-3 on a hardcourt in 2025. Bartunkova also has three titles to her name, and she’s appeared in six finals this year alone, though most were ITF level. That doesn’t mean she isn’t WTA tested, as she’s made the final at WTA Samsun, and the semifinal at WTA Guadalajara 2.
Best Bet to Make
Bartunkova has been a wrecking ball this year. She’s been a lively opponent for many, and is clearly showing that she has the potential to become a top player in the World with due time. She’s only 19 right now, and she’s only had one losing season in the overall sense, and that was her first year. You’re not going to get much betting on her straight, but you can cash out double your money by taking her 2:0 on Bet365. This would be my recommended move, as Sonobe has really struggled the entire year.
That being said, Bartunkova winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Bartunkova winning 2:0 @2.0 @Bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
AloJapan.com