The WTA Osaka final is here. It’s Tereza Valentova vs Leylah Fernandez. Last Word on Tennis is back with more best bets for this final. Can Gauff win her second title of the year, or will Valentova win her fifth? I provided a few different bets, so let me know in the comments if you agree with my picks. As always, thank you for reading.
WTA Osaka final
Valentova – Fernandez: October 18th, 2025 05:00
H2H: 0-0
Tereza Valentova has stormed her way into the WTA Osaka final against Leylah Fernandez. While the Canadian has been playing really well lately, 2025 hasn’t been her year thus far. This is a perfect chance for Fernandez to finish out the year strong and add another title to her resume. Valentova has been nearly unstoppable this year at 50-11 overall. She’s also 12-3 on clay, 18-3 on a hardcourt, and 18-4 indoors. She’s even 2-1 on grass! Valentova is sure to give Fernandez plenty of fight.
As I previously mentioned, Valentova has four tournament titles in ’25, and two of them were WTA-level. She has one hardcourt title, one clay title, and two indoor titles. This match would give her a second title within four months, with two other semifinals also in there. She’s been a wrecking crew, and it hasn’t really mattered whether it’s been WTA or ITF. Valentova has proven that she can handle it all.
Both women have quality losses recently. Fernandez lost to Coco Gauff, Aryna Sabalenka, and Naomi Osaka. Valentova’s two losses were to Bianca Andreescu and Elena Rybakina. When you look at their losses, the loss to Bianca Andreescu stands out. She’s definitely not on the same level as the other names, and she’s someone that Valentova should beat on most days. It’s those types of losses, especially when Andreescu is 13-11 overall and 2-4 on a hardcourt.
Leylah Fernandez has also been a buzzsaw lately. She’s on a four-match winning streak. There’s also no doubt she has been the victim of some absolutely brutal draws. Having Maya Joint, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Rebecca Sramkova, Sabalenka, Gauff, and Osaka is going to wreak havoc on anyone’s overall record. Despite that, Fernandez put up some really admirable performances. She took Sramkova to a third set. She forced Sabalenka into a second-set tiebreak. She took Gauff into a third set in a massive back-and-forth war, and then she did the same with Osaka.
Fernandez’s best work has been on a hardcourt in 2025. She’s 23-14 on a hardcourt, whereas she’s either right at .500 or just below on other surfaces. Her only title came on a hardcourt, too. While this is her first time playing in Osaka, it’s also Valentova’s first time. So, the question becomes how to bet on this match. I’ve got some options for you down below.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
The books have Fernandez as the favorite in this match, but the average checks in at 2.02 to 1.78, giving Fernandez an average of about .25 on Valentova. I understand why they’re doing this. Valentova is the lower-ranked player on the World scale, and she tends to have much of her success at the ITF level. Even still, I think her performances as of late, in tandem with the two titles she’s won recently at the WTA level, prove that Valentova is someone on the rise. She’s going to be a problem for the WTA in the future.
But is the future now? I think so. I think Valentova is playing incredibly well right now. I also think that Fernandez has been on top of it, as well. But when I look at their careers this year, one player clearly stands above the other. Valentova has been dominating everywhere she goes. There’s a reason she has four titles this year. It’s not just the physical abilities; it’s her ability to dig deep and persevere when she needs to do so.
That being said, Valentova winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Valentova winning @2.12 @Betfair
Second Bet
If you’re set on taking Fernandez, then I would recommend taking her straight up. The payout on a straight-up bet is going to be so close to what you’d get picking some of the more reasonable prop bets that it just makes sense to avoid the hassle and take the easier prospect. I wanted to list something for Fernandez because I know there will be bettors out there who don’t fancy Valentova.
That being said, Fernandez winning is a value bet.
Value bet/the best odds: Fernandez winning @1.85 @Unibet
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
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