The personnel base of the Japan Self-Defense Forces in an era of demographic decline

Executive summary

The acquisition of the most advanced fighter aircraft is of little strategic value if there are insufficient personnel to operate them. This is no longer a concern for the distant future—it is an immediate and pressing reality.

As Japan’s security environment grows increasingly severe, the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) is undertaking a fundamental reinforcement of defense capabilities. At the same time, they face the irreversible constraint of a declining population. A shrinking pool of recruitment-age individuals, mounting difficulties in attracting new personnel, and rising mid-career attrition have collectively made it increasingly difficult for the JSDF to maintain even its authorized strength (i.e., the personnel level legally defined by Japan’s Ministry of Defense). Moreover, the nature of warfare itself is shifting, with unmanned systems becoming a global standard for reducing human casualties on the battlefield.

Against this backdrop, this paper focuses on the personnel base of the JSDF—particularly that of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force—and explores the need to restructure force development considering a steadily shrinking manpower base. It proposes the strategic advancement of labor-saving and unmanned approaches. Specifically, it identifies five key areas for further deliberation: rationalizing the number of manned aircraft with the integration of unmanned assets; streamlining and optimizing command and control structures; promoting multi-skilling (i.e., equipping personnel with competencies beyond their primary specialty) among personnel; enhancing base defense through advanced technologies; and optimizing the number and operation of pilot trainer aircraft.

This paper’s aim is to offer concrete proposals to strengthen Japan’s defense capabilities from a human-resources perspective, and to inform and advance future discussion, while acknowledging the structural constraint of demographic decline. Reducing reliance on manpower is not simply about efficiency—it represents a fundamental reconfiguration of personnel roles that protects and empowers those who serve. This evolution should not be limited to the JSDF alone. Rather, labor-saving and unmanned capabilities should be clearly positioned as a national-level initiative to support the long-term sustainability of Japanese society in the era of demographic change.