Former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a leadership election campaign of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Tokyo, Japan, Sept. 22, 2025. (Franck Robichon/Pool via Xinhua)
Even if new LDP chief Sanae Takaichi is successfully elected as the prime minister of Japan, she will face numerous challenges in both domestic and foreign affairs due to the withdrawal of Komeito from the ruling coalition.
TOKYO, Oct. 11 (Xinhua) — Japan’s Komeito has announced that the political party will terminate its decades-old coalition with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Why did this sudden breakup occur? Will this affect new LDP chief Sanae Takaichi’s path to becoming Japan’s first female prime minister? What impact will it have on the country’s domestic and foreign policies?
Sanae Takaichi (R) shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, also former president of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), after winning LDP presidential election at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, Oct. 4, 2025. (Kim Kyung-Hoon/REUTERS/Pool via Xinhua)
WHY THE WITHDRAWAL
Komeito chief Tetsuo Saito met with Takaichi in a meeting on Friday afternoon that lasted about an hour and a half. Saito told reporters after the meeting that his party will end its 26-year alliance with the LDP, citing the ruling party’s “insufficient” response to a high-profile political funds scandal.
Komeito has urged the LDP to accept its proposal to have stricter restrictions on political donations from businesses to limit their influence on policymaking, while the LDP, by far the top beneficiary of corporate donations, is seeking to avoid restrictions on such donations to individual lawmakers.
Saito said the LDP’s stance explained by Takaichi at Friday’s meeting on the political donation issue, which is “the most important matter” for Komeito, was “truly insufficient” and “extremely regrettable.”
Saito also ruled out voting for Takaichi in the upcoming parliamentary session to choose the country’s new leader, adding that Komeito lawmakers will cast their ballots for him as prime minister instead.
Takaichi won the LDP presidential election on Oct. 4, becoming the ruling party’s first female leader and, in all likelihood, the country’s first woman prime minister. Following Saito’s announcement, Takaichi told reporters that the “unilateral” decision by Komeito was “truly regrettable.”
Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, said Friday morning that during the LDP presidential election, all the candidates talked a lot about “expanding the ruling coalition,” but when it comes to maintaining the coalition, they lacked due attention to the party’s long-time junior ally Komeito. This might be the reason why Komeito felt a strong sense of crisis.
Sanae Takaichi is pictured during Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo, Japan, Oct. 4, 2025. (Kim Kyung-Hoon/REUTERS/Pool via Xinhua)
WILL IT AFFECT TAKAICHI’S PM BID
For Takaichi to become Japan’s next prime minister, she must be appointed by the Diet, Japan’s parliament. While Komeito’s exit from the ruling camp throws the LDP’s grip on power into uncertainty, considering the number of seats each party holds in the Diet, Takaichi still has a high chance of succeeding Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister.
Both houses of the Diet vote to choose the prime minister, but if they make different choices, the powerful lower house’s pick prevails. A candidate who wins a majority in the first round is named prime minister. If no one secures a majority, a runoff vote is held between the top two vote-getters, and the one with more votes is chosen even without a majority.
The LDP currently holds 196 of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives, while Komeito holds 24. The LDP holds 100 of the 248 seats in the House of Councillors, while Komeito holds 21.
Without Komeito, the LDP is further away from the 233 and 125 seats it needs to secure a majority in the lower house and the upper house, respectively. However, the LDP remains the largest party in the Diet. If the opposition parties fail to unite and no one secures a majority in the first round of voting, Takaichi could still win by obtaining a majority of votes in the second round.
The Constitutional Democratic Party said that if the opposition parties unite, a change of government is not impossible. However, the largest opposition holds only 148 seats in the lower house, and even if the seats of the Komeito Party and the left-wing Japanese Communist Party are added, it still cannot surpass the LDP.
To overthrow the LDP, the Constitutional Democratic Party must secure the cooperation of either the Japan Innovation Party or the Democratic Party for the People. However, these two parties’ policies differ significantly from those of the Constitutional Democratic Party, making cooperation difficult. Meanwhile, Takaichi is also considering seeking the support of the Democratic Party for the People. Whether she can become prime minister depends crucially on the outcome of the negotiations between these political parties.
Former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, former Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi and Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (from L to R) pose for a group photo during a leadership election campaign of the LDP in Tokyo, Japan, Sept. 22, 2025. (Franck Robichon/Pool via Xinhua)
IMPACT ON DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLICIES
Even if Takaichi is successfully elected as the prime minister of Japan, she will face numerous challenges in both domestic and foreign affairs due to the withdrawal of Komeito from the ruling coalition.
First of all, if Takaichi is unable to form a ruling coalition with other parties after Komeito withdraws, the LDP will govern alone, which will make policy implementation more difficult and political instability more severe. Even if Takaichi forms a ruling coalition with the Japan Innovation Party, which holds 35 seats in the lower house, their combined seats would still fall short of a majority.
Secondly, according to local media reports, an extraordinary Diet session to pick the next prime minister is unlikely to be convened until at least Oct. 20, extending the “political vacuum.” As is customary in Japan, the cabinet usually resigns en masse on the day when the Diet names a new prime minister. Once the new leader is elected and takes office, a new cabinet is formed to complete the power transition. While Takaichi has become the LDP president, Ishiba remains the prime minister. This situation is known in Japan as the “separation of the prime minister and the president,” during which the government may struggle to implement effective policies.
Thirdly, political instability may affect Japan’s foreign policy. According to plans, Ishiba’s successor is scheduled to embark on a series of diplomatic activities. Japan and the United States are coordinating a visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to Japan at the end of this month, while the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting is about to take place in South Korea. The delayed inauguration of Japan’s new prime minister will inevitably shorten the preparation time for a series of important foreign affairs activities, which may have an adverse impact on Japan.■
AloJapan.com