USDJPY – Daily Chart – 101025
Read the full USD/JPY forecast, including chart setups and trade ideas.
As traders shift expectations of an October rate hike, Aussie economic data continues to weigh on RBA rate cut bets.
Business Turnover and the Aussie Dollar in the Spotlight
Turning focus to the AUD/USD pair, Aussie business turnover numbers could fuel speculation about a November RBA rate cut.
Falling business turnover could signal pressures on profit margins. Margin pressures may force firms to lower fixed costs, including workforce reductions. A looser labor market may curb wage growth and consumer spending, thereby softening demand-driven inflation. A more dovish RBA policy stance would weigh on the appetite for the Aussie dollar.
On the other hand, uptrends in business turnover would support hiring and rising wages, easing bets on an RBA rate cut. A less dovish RBA policy stance would likely lift demand for the Aussie dollar.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Softer Aussie data, dovish RBA signals, and rising trade tensions may push AUD/USD toward $0.65 and the 200-day EMA.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Stronger Aussie data, hawkish RBA rhetoric, and easing trade tensions could send AUD/USD above the 50-day EMA. A sustained move through the 50-day EMA could bring $0.66 into play.
See our full AUD/USD analysis for detailed trends and trade setups.
US Data, Fed Speakers, and Interest Rate Differentials
While Aussie economic data continues to drive uncertainty about an RBA rate cut, US data and Fed speakers will also drive AUD/USD trends.
Weaker US consumer sentiment would support a more dovish Fed rate path. Rising bets on multiple Fed rate cuts would narrow the interest rate differential, favoring the Aussie dollar. A narrow rate differential may send AUD/USD above the 50-day EMA to target $0.66.
Conversely, a pickup in sentiment and hawkish Fed rhetoric would widen the rate differential, favoring the US dollar. A wider rate differential may push AUD/USD toward $0.65 and the 20-day EMA.
AloJapan.com