Japan is on the brink of history after Sanae Takaichi today won the run-off to replace Shigeru Ishiba as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) thus becoming the presumptive prime minister. The 64-year old Takaichi, a political veteran and former economic security minister, will be Japan’s first female leader if approved in an extraordinary session of the Diet likely to be held in around 15 days’ time.
So, who is Sanae Takaichi? And what can we expect if she does assume the highest office? The PM-in-waiting is the daughter of a policewoman and auto parts worker from Nara, and worked as a legal analyst and TV presenter before entering politics. She is a graduate of the Matsushita Institute of Government and Management, an incubator of future prime ministers in the mould of the World Economic Forum’s Young Global Leaders programme. Snippets of curious personal information add flavour to the political biography. She was once a drummer in a heavy metal band; she married the same man, an LDP colleague, twice; she reveres Margaret Thatcher and is known, like her idol, as the Iron Lady.
Takaichi was a member of the Shinzo Abe faction of her party and is described in Japan as an arch-conservative. She supports the revision of the country’s pacifist constitution, has opposed same-sex marriage and even women retaining their surname on marriage, and is hawkish on China and tough on immigration. Her most notorious moment to date came when she hinted at government censorship of the press for biased reporting when she was communications minister and Abe was PM.
Will Takaichi move Japan to the Right? Wearing a strikingly Thatcherite blue outfit and pearls (all that was missing was the totemic handbag), she gave hints of a radical agenda and a new dawn in her victory speech today — but it will be extremely difficult. As the head of a coalition government, not to mention leader of a declining and fractious party, it will take considerable skill just to keep the show on the road. Takaichi only has a two-year lease on the party leadership role, so will have little time to assert herself. An air-clearing general election to give her a stronger mandate makes sense but would be an extremely risky proposition, as her soon-to-be predecessor Ishiba found out to his cost last year.
Japan’s Iron Lady will need to be flexible. She appears open to working with the new kids on the block Sanseito, an upstart Right-wing party which made a breakthrough in recent upper house elections. Takaichi’s relationship with Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya will be interesting to observe, and there is something of the Tory-Reform UK dynamic to the relationship between the two Japanese parties. But while Takaichi and Kamiya are on the same wavelength in terms of policy, one belongs to a venerable political party with an ageing and dwindling support base, and the other is the leader of the angry insurgent force with extensive youth backing. They may soon need each other.
Takaichi, assuming she does become PM, will have a baptism of fire. US President Donald Trump has just confirmed a three-day visit to Tokyo at the end of this month, and there is much to discuss. Takaichi has signalled her displeasure with the tariff agreement negotiated by Ishiba and, will seek to reopen it if it proves painful for Japan. She may also seek firmer security guarantees. If she wins over Trump and ekes out any sort of concession, it would be a tremendous start to her premiership. If the US President doesn’t take to her and brushes her appeals aside, she will find it hard to recover.
AloJapan.com