Sunday’s G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe will mark the 23rd attempt by Japan to win what is arguably the world’s greatest race.
Japanese hopes are high that this might be the year to conquer their Everest. The forecast suggests only light rain at Longchamp, not enough to turn the track into a quagmire, and this year’s French, British, Irish runners appear far from invincible.
All three Japanese runners – Croix du Nord, Alohi Alii and Byzantine Dream – are entering off French stakes wins and bring attributes that could see them become the equine equivalent of Sir Edmund Hillary.
A quick glance at the form book suggests Croix du Nord is the leading contender. The Tokyo Yushun winner overcame a soft track to narrowly take the G3 Prix du Prince d’Orange (2000m) in mid-September; a firmer surface over a mile and a half will suit.
However, on one metric, Croix du Nord is the least likely of the three to land Japan’s first Arc win – the stayer Byzantine Dream is the horse to follow. That measure is bodyweight, a raceday staple in Japan and Hong Kong but largely a mystery elsewhere.
One can look at Australian Derby winner Aeliana and see that she is diminutive; or recall Flightline before the Breeders’ Cup Classic and know he was a giant. What do they weigh, though?
The Japanese runners have not been weighed publicly since arriving in France. Byzantine Dream weighed 454kg when second in the G1 Tenno Sho (Spring), Alohi Alii was 492kg when eighth in the G1 Satsuki Sho and Croix du Nord a comparatively whopping 504kg when taking the G1 Tokyo Yushun.
Intriguingly, lighter body weights have correlated with performance in the Arc.
Japan has had 35 Arc runners ranging from 442kg (974lb) to 536kg (1182lb). Remarkably, all of Japan’s top six finishers have been below 480kg and only one Japanese runner below 470kg has not hit the board, their first ever runner Speed Symboli in 1969. Given Japanese racing’s standing at that time, his 11th to Levmoss was an above average performance he outran expectations as 23rd favourite in a 24-horse field.
Nakayama Festa, who weighed 462kg in 2011, also finished 11th. However, he had finished closest of all Japanese runners when a head second to Workforce in 2010.
The legendary Deep Impact was the lightest of the 35 at 442kg. He finished a disappointing third, although he was later disqualified after testing positive to ipratropium – a medication that assists with breathing.
Runners-up Orfevre (456kg and 464kg) and El Condor Pasa (472kg) and fourth-placed Through Seven Seas (446kg) and Kizuna (478kg) add weight – no pun intended – to the theory that lighter is better. Conversely, no horse weighing more than 480kg has finished closer than seventh.
So is there merit to this hypothesis?
An interesting comparison can be made with the Arc winners who had official body weights recorded because they raced in Japan or Hong Kong. Of those 11, six (Waldgeist, Danedream, Urban Sea, Solemia, Tony Bin, All Along) were below the 480kg threshold, three (Montjeu, Bago, Helissio) were between 480kg and 490kg and two (Carroll House, Dylan Thomas) were relative giants above 500kg.
While there might be a slight statistical advantage to lighter horses, it is one of many factors that make an Arc winner. But if Byzantine Dream does land the Arc, perhaps we will see an influx of lightly framed Japanese horses into Paris in the years ahead. ∎
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AloJapan.com