Jenson Brooksby has crashed the semifinal party in Tokyo as the only unseeded player remaining, and he will face fellow American Taylor Fritz on Monday. Carlos Alcaraz is going up against Casper Ruud.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (4) Casper Ruud
Alcaraz and Ruud will be squaring off for the sixth time in their careers when they battle on Monday for a spot in the Japan Open title match. The head-to-head series stands at 4-1 in favor of Alcaraz, who most notably prevailed in the 2022 U.S. Open final with the No. 1 ranking going to whichever man lifted the trophy. He was previously 4-0 lifetime against Ruud before losing their most recent meeting at the 2024 Nitto ATP Finals via a 6-1, 7-5 decision.
An indoor hard court is by far Alcaraz’s worst surface, so the top-ranked Spaniard should be able to restore order and turn the tide back in his favor in these Tokyo conditions. Despite a brief sprained-ankle scare in round one, Alcaraz has cruised to wins over Sebastian Baez, Zizou Bergs, and Brandon Nakashima while improving his record to 50-3 in his last 53 matches. Ruud has done well to defeat Shintaro Mochizuki, Matteo Berrettini, and Aleksandar Vukic, but for the most part the second half of this season has been a disappointment for the 12th-ranked Canadian. This may not be an overly competitive contest.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2
(PR) Jenson Brooksby vs. (2) Taylor Fritz
Brooksby boasts a unique style of play with all kinds of variety and he can run opponents ragged when he is playing well. The 86th-ranked American is playing well right now, but the bad news is that Fritz is on the other side of the net. Fritz’s movement has improved dramatically in recent years and he almost never beats himself, so he has all the tools to combat Brooksby’s weapons. The fifth-ranked American has won their last two encounters in easy straight sets, both this season (Australian Open first round and Eastbourne final).
Fritz’s outstanding 2025 has continued this fall with Laver Cup heroics for Team World and Tokyo victories over Gabriel Diallo, Nuno Borges, and Sebastian Korda. Brooksby, who used a protected ranking to gain direct entry into the main draw, punched his ticket to the last four by beating Ugo Humbert, Luciano Darderi, and Holger Rune. This will likely be a high-quality and entertaining contest, but a clear upper hand goes to Fritz.
Pick: Fritz in 2
AloJapan.com