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Hello and welcome to the working week.
The next seven days are going to involve a lot of talk about leadership, or perhaps rather more than normal, including a potentially historic change at the top in a G7 nation.
The UK hits peak political party conference season with the ruling Labour administration on the ropes as its members gather in Liverpool. The opposition Conservatives and the Greens also assemble this week.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer addresses his party on Tuesday in what may well be the most important speech of his leadership to date. The fevered talk of a challenge for his job from Manchester mayor Andy Burnham feels overblown — for more on that, read Stephen Bush’s Inside Politics newsletter — but Starmer must do something to arrest the unrest among Labour party members, and not just the numerous policy announcements that are expected at this event.
He also needs to take the fight to Reform UK’s Nigel Farage, who is ahead in the polls and gaining traction in part (and incredibly) on the basis of some quite reckless policy ideas, as Robert Shrimsley put it in his UK politics column. It feels like a critical moment for an embattled prime minister, not least because Labour faces threats from both the right and the left across the country — even in traditional Labour-voting metropolitan constituencies.
The big change in governance is likely to come on the other side of the globe this week, as the 900,000-strong membership of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) elects a new leader, and therefore prime minister, on Saturday.
The outcome is set to be historic because it looks likely that either the country will get its first female prime minister in Sanae Takaichi, or will elect Shinjiro Koizumi, making him the youngest man to hold the job since the 19th century. There is some confidence in these outcomes because these two are running significantly ahead of the pack in a five-candidate race.
The situation is complicated, however. The LDP is in a mess because, on the watch of the current prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, the party and its coalition partner Komeito have lost their combined majority in both houses for the first time.
Also, since the prime minister is chosen by parliament, it is no longer a rubber stamp that the LDP’s president is a shoo-in for the job. So as soon as the leadership election is settled (we will know the outcome on Saturday), the LDP will have to go to parliament and win, via horse-trading with other parties, a vote to put that person in as prime minister. It’s probably not going to be too difficult for the LDP to achieve, but it’s an unprecedented hurdle, so worth watching. For more detail, read this explainer by the FT’s Japan bureau chief Leo Lewis.
The lack of majority in upper and lower houses also means that whoever becomes prime minister will immediately have a grim choice — make friends with one of the smaller, more radical parties that have done well in recent elections by highlighting the LDP’s many shortcomings, or hold a snap general election that could, in theory, set the LDP back even further.
The betting is that they will go for the first option, which is why people the FT has been speaking to think Koizumi is probably going to win: he seems to have a good relationship with the leader of the Innovation party, which would basically come on board as a permanent cooperator, though not a full coalition partner. The FT editorial board is clear: Japan needs a vision.
Corporate news is a bit thin on the ground this week, or at least that which can be diarised, but British retailers will be a theme with the country’s largest supermarket chain Tesco and the baked snacks chain Greggs reporting numbers. Expect their figures to provide an insight into the state of the high street, consumer confidence and the impact of the UK government’s national insurance tax increases and new employment laws on costs and hiring.
The headline economic data events will be the purchasing managers’ index reports, laying bare the relative economic positions of the world’s major economies, US and EU employment figures and the UK’s revised quarterly GDP number, which happens to come out on the day of Starmer’s speech.
Central bankers will be out in force on the speakers’ circuit. Talking of which, my colleagues Chris Giles, Katie Martin and Claire Jones, alongside special guest Lael Brainard, will be hosting an exclusive subscriber webinar Markets on edge: central banks, bonds and the risks ahead on October 23 at 12pm GMT. Register now and put your questions directly to the panel.
One more thing . . .
This year has already brought a wealth of celestial activity with the alignment of all seven of our solar system’s planets, full lunar eclipses and many bright displays of aurora borealis (the northern lights to you and I) as the Sun reaches the peak of its 11-year cycle of activity.
On Thursday we have another heavenly delight with the Orionid meteor shower, one of the best known and most reliable meteor showers in the annual calendar, due to become visible from across our planet. It is expected to peak on October 22, so there’s time if you miss it this week.
Are you staring at the skies or more worried about matters here on earth? Where do you find your inspiration? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this in your inbox, just hit reply. And however you spend the next seven days, I wish you well.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
Bank of Japan policy board member Asahi Noguchi speaks at an event run by the Sapporo Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Sapporo
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams takes part in a moderated discussion on the US economic outlook at the Rochester Institute of Technology
UK: Zoopla House Price Index and Adzuna UK Job Market Report
Results: Carnival Q3, Devolver Digital HY, Progress Software Q3
Tuesday
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the FT Future of Financial Intelligence event. Register here
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee to participate in a question-and-answer session at the 2025 Midwest Agriculture Conference.
Sir Mark Tucker retires as HSBC chair
Australia: interest rate announcement
China: manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data
Germany: August labour market figures, plus September consumer price index (CPI) and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data
Japan: summary of opinions from September’s monetary policy meeting
UK: revised Q2 GDP estimate, plus quarterly national accounts data. Also, HM Revenue & Customs publishes soft drinks industry levy statistics
US: August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts) data, plus The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
Results: AG Barr HY, Boku HY, Card Factory HY, Close Brothers FY, Lacroix HY, Lamb Weston Holdings Q1, Nike Q1, NIOX HY, PayChex Q1
Wednesday
Italian Tech Week begins in Turin, running until Friday. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is the headline guest and will speak on a panel with John Elkann, chief executive of Exor, and chair of Ferrari and Stellantis
Albert Manifold becomes BP chair, succeeding Helge Lund who steps down
Canada, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global manufacturing PMI data
EU: September Eurozone area inflation estimate
Hong Kong: National Day. Financial markets closed
Japan: September Tankan survey
UK: Nationwide September House Price Index
US: fiscal year begins
Results: Acuity Q4, ConAgra Q1, Greggs Q3 trading update, James Halstead FY, RPM International Q1, Topps Tiles FY trading statement
Thursday
European Central Bank vice-president Luis de Guindos will talk with the Esade business school’s director of the Center for Economic Policy Toni Roldán about current challenges for the Eurozone economies
Deliveroo acquisition by DoorDash is expected to complete today
EU: August unemployment data
India: Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday commemorated. Financial markets closed.
Japan: September consumer confidence survey
UK: Bank of England Decision Maker Panel data
Results: SSE notification of closed period, Tesco HY
Friday
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Klaas Knot Farewell Symposium in Amsterdam
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a meeting with business leaders in Osaka
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives keynote before the Klaas Knot Farewell Symposium, organised by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam
Canada, Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global services PMI data
EU: Q2 House Price Index
France: INSEE August industrial production index
Japan: August labour force survey
UK: British Retail Consortium’s September Economic Monitor
US: September employment figures
Results: JD Wetherspoon FY, Kernel FY, Yaskawa Electric HY
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
France: Paris Fashion Week, Womenswear Spring/Summer 2026, begins
Moldova: eastern European nation’s election commission announces final parliamentary election results
UK: Labour party conference continues in Liverpool with chancellor Rachel Reeves delivering her keynote speech. Separately, City aldermen elect the new Lord Mayor of London for the next 12-month term
US: UN General Debate concludes at the international governmental organisation’s New York headquarters building. The tentative speaker list today includes leaders of Moldova, South Sudan and Afghanistan, plus Pope Leo XIV
Tuesday
China: Martyr’s Day
South Korea: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba arrives in Seoul for a state visit
UK: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer delivers his keynote speech to the Labour party conference in Liverpool
US: the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which offers zero-tariff access to US markets for 32 of the continent’s developing countries, is set to expire today, creating trouble for some of Africa’s most successful manufacturing industries
Wednesday
Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar, begins in the evening
China: Golden Week public holiday begins with celebrating National Day
Denmark: an informal meeting between leaders of the 27 EU member states in Copenhagen to discuss defence and support for Ukraine, chaired by European Council President António Costa and hosted by Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen
Russia assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council
US: federal government shutdown deadline. The White House is instructing federal agencies to prepare for mass firings rather than the usual furloughing of staff if this latest funding deadline is not met, according to Politico
Thursday
The expected start of the Orionid meteor shower
Denmark: European Political Community meeting, including about 50 European leaders. The presidents of the European Council, European Commission and European parliament are also invited to attend
Japan: 62nd US-Japan Business Conference begins in Tokyo, running for two days
Friday
Czech Republic: parliamentary elections, concluding tomorrow
Germany: French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to speak at the 35th anniversary of Germany’s reunification alongside German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the city of Saarbruecken on the border with France
Luxembourg: Grand Duke Henri is due to formally sign the Act of Abdication, ending nearly 25 years on the throne of this small European country. His eldest son Guillaume will become the new Grand Duke following the ceremony
South Korea: National Foundation Day, a public holiday
UK: Green party of England and Wales autumn conference begins in Bournemouth, including a speech by the new leader Zack Polanski
SaturdaySunday
South Korea: Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, running until next Wednesday
UK: Conservative party conference begins in Manchester, also running until next Wednesday
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