Japan updates probability of Nankai Trough megaquake to as high as 90%

A Japanese government panel has updated its assessment of the likelihood of a massive earthquake striking the Nankai Trough off the country’s Pacific coast, setting the probability within the next 30 years at roughly 60 to 90 %, or higher.

The figure, announced Friday by the national earthquake investigation committee, reflects a revised calculation method that factors in data errors and prediction uncertainties. Officials stressed the change does not imply that seismic risk has increased.