PUBLISHED : 12 Sep 2025 at 10:52
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Rice ready for harvest in Sanjo, Niigata prefecture, on Aug 28, 2025. (Photo: Kyodo)
The farm ministry said on Thursday demand for staple rice in Japan for the year to June 2026 could rise by up to 380,000 tonnes from the initial estimate to 7.11 million tonnes after factoring in consumption by inbound tourists and other variables.
Last year, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries estimated demand at 6.73 million tonnes, which assumed a decrease in per capita consumption due to a declining population and the growing popularity of bread.
The new estimated range of 6.97 to 7.11 million tonnes was calculated using a five-year average from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’ household survey.
The farm ministry forecasts rice production for the 2025 harvest to be between 7.28 million and 7.45 million tonnes, with planting of rice having increased in response to shortages.
For the first time, the farm ministry also factored in rice yields, the proportion of rice that remains after milling, estimating production to be between 6.45 million to 6.68 million tonnes.
A significant shortfall experienced since last year, which caused a sharp rise in rice prices, may have been partly due to the farm ministry not factoring in potential declines in rice yields due to heat damage.
AloJapan.com