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Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation on August 7 comes less than a year after he assumed office in October 2024, making his tenure one of the shortest in recent Japanese political history. Ishiba’s leadership began with the hope of stabilising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) after persistent turmoil, but the premier soon found himself navigating domestic and external pressures concurrently. Central to this was the steady erosion of the LDP’s electoral dominance, a party which had been the bedrock of Japan’s political system since the 1950s. The ruling LDP–Komeito coalition lost its majority in the lower house in late 2024 and then suffered another blow in the July 2025 upper house elections. This double defeat left the government in a minority position in both houses of parliament, a scenario not seen in the postwar period and a fatal weakness for any Japanese premier. Meanwhile, opposition parties capitalised on growing voter frustration, presenting Ishiba as a leader unable to deliver stability either domestically or in Japan’s international positioning.
Ishiba’s leadership began with the hope of stabilising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) after persistent turmoil, but the premier soon found himself navigating domestic and external pressures concurrently.
Alongside this political fragility, Ishiba faced mounting economic discontent. Inflation had climbed above the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent target, wages stagnated, and the yen weakened sharply, undermining household purchasing power. Japan’s export-dependent economy also became vulnerable to renewed US tariff pressures under Donald Trump’s administration. Ishiba had invested significant political capital in negotiating with Washington to reduce tariffs on Japanese automobiles, ultimately securing a partial reduction from 25 to 15 percent. Yet this came at the cost of prolonged political distraction, during which domestic frustrations deepened.
Internally, Ishiba was increasingly isolated within the LDP. Senior figures, such as Taro Aso, along with influential factions, signalled impatience with his leadership, while younger members worried about electoral losses spilling over into the next general election. With whispers of a no-confidence vote growing louder, Ishiba calculated that resigning after securing the tariff deal with the US would allow him to exit on a note of responsibility rather than be forced out in a divisive party confrontation.
Public Opinion and Sentiment
Public opinion toward Shigeru Ishiba during his premiership was marked by a paradox. While he oversaw one of the LDP’s worst electoral defeats in decades, Ishiba himself retained a degree of personal credibility, which in turn complicated his resignation. Polls in late August 2025 showed that cabinet approval ratings had risen by nearly 17 percentage points, reaching 39 per cent, while disapproval fell below 50 percent for the first time in months. Nearly half of those surveyed expressed support for him continuing in office, a marked increase from earlier results. This surge suggested that voters recognised his efforts, even if they were unconvinced by his party’s overall performance.
Public opinion toward Shigeru Ishiba during his premiership was marked by a paradox. While he oversaw one of the LDP’s worst electoral defeats in decades, Ishiba himself retained a degree of personal credibility, which in turn complicated his resignation.
At the same time, dissatisfaction with everyday economic realities continued to be the dominant driver of voter sentiment. Rising food, energy, and housing costs eroded public trust in the government’s ability to safeguard livelihoods. The weakening yen was particularly resented, as it directly affected households through costlier imports and inflationary pressures. Many Japanese citizens viewed Ishiba as too preoccupied with international diplomacy—particularly the tariff deal with Washington—while neglecting domestic reforms that could have addressed stagnant wages, demographic decline, and social welfare gaps.
The emergence of new political alternatives further reflected a shifting public mood. The populist far-right Sanseito party secured an unprecedented 14 seats in the upper house in July 2025. Their success clearly demonstrates that voter frustration is no longer confined to mere dissatisfaction with the LDP but is the symptom of a deeper systemic disillusionment. For many, Ishiba’s resignation symbolises both accountability and political exhaustion: he was seen as a leader who bowed out responsibly after securing a critical trade agreement, but also as one who ultimately failed to inspire confidence.
Demonstrates that voter frustration is no longer confined to mere dissatisfaction with the LDP but is the symptom of a deeper systemic disillusionment.
A Political Crisis Unfolds
Ishiba’s exit has plunged Japan into a political crisis at a time when both institutional stability and public confidence are fragile. Without majorities in either the lower or upper house, it creates legislative gridlock for the LDP, with even routine policymaking being subject to prolonged negotiation and obstruction.
The leadership vacuum adds another layer of uncertainty. Ishiba’s resignation was not a pre-planned transition but a response to internal discontent and electoral setbacks. The absence of a clear successor has deepened concerns about factionalism within the LDP, with different wings ranging from fiscal conservatives to nationalist hardliners, in turn raising the risk of a divisive leadership contest that could further weaken the party. In a political culture that values continuity and consensus, such visible instability is rare and unsettling.
Economic uncertainty compounds the crisis. The markets reacted nervously to Ishiba’s resignation, with bond yields rising and the yen weakening further, as investors worried about the Bank of Japan’s policy trajectory. This crisis is not merely about leadership change; it is about whether Japan’s dominant party can still guarantee political stability in an era of economic strain, external pressures, and rising populist alternatives.
Pathways Forward
The immediate challenge for Japan lies in ensuring a smooth transition of leadership within the LDP. An emergency party election scheduled for early October will determine Japan’s next prime minister, and several figures are already positioning themselves. Sanae Takaichi, the current Minister of Economic Security, is emerging as a frontrunner from the conservative wing, promising fiscal expansion while taking a hard line on national security. If she wins, it would not only mark Japan’s first female premiership but also signal a more right-leaning policy agenda. On the other hand, Shinjiro Koizumi, a younger and more moderate politician, may represent continuity, appealing to younger voters and those disillusioned by the LDP. Yoshimasa Hayashi and other establishment candidates could also enter the race, though their ability to galvanise public support remains uncertain.
The credibility of the new prime minister will hinge on whether they can demonstrate both responsiveness to immediate cost-of-living pressures and a longer-term vision for economic resilience.
Beyond leadership succession, the larger question is whether the LDP can restore its governing majority. A possible option could be building a coalition by strengthening ties with Komeito or seeking issue-based cooperation with centrist opposition parties. However, this would demand significant compromises, particularly on fiscal policy and social reforms, which could alienate parts of the LDP’s base. If consensus proves elusive, the next government may be forced to call early elections in an attempt to reset the political balance.
The economic agenda will also be central to any pathway forward. With inflation high, the yen weak, and wages stagnant, the next leader must prioritise measures that directly address household concerns. The credibility of the new prime minister will hinge on whether they can demonstrate both responsiveness to immediate cost-of-living pressures and a longer-term vision for economic resilience.
Finally, Japan’s foreign policy orientation will remain under scrutiny. The new leadership must reassure both domestic audiences and international partners that Japan remains a reliable, stable actor. In this sense, the way forward is not simply about choosing a new leader, but about restoring confidence in Japan’s political system and its capacity to govern effectively in uncertain times.
Pratnashree Basu is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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