Japan’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, is to resign less than a year after taking office, throwing the country’s politics into turmoil and setting in motion a potentially messy contest to replace him as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP).
The softly spoken centrist has presided over two disastrous elections since being elected to lead the LDP last autumn. In October, the party and its junior coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the lower house and met the same fate in upper house elections this July.
Speaking to the media on Sunday evening – a day before his opponents inside the party were expected to attempt to force him out – Ishiba said he would resign to take responsibility for the election debacles, saying he wanted to avoid opening up a “decisive” split in the LDP.
He announced the decision at a time of uncertainty for the world’s fourth-biggest economy as it wrestles with the impact on exports of Donald Trump’s tariffs. Last week the US president announced he would lower tariffs imposed on Japanese cars from 27.5% to 15%, in a rare moment of guarded optimism for the embattled Ishiba.
“Now that negotiations on US tariff measures have reached a conclusion, I believe this is the appropriate moment [to resign],” Ishiba told reporters. “I have decided to step aside and make way for the next generation.”
Opposition to Ishiba, 68, has mounted in recent weeks, with media reporting that disaffected MPs would attempt to force him out by voting on Monday to bring forward a party presidential election not due until 2027.
Ishiba had reportedly generated even more anger, particularly among those on the right of the LDP, by resisting the move, and threatening instead to call a “put up or shut up” snap election.
Ishiba conceded that he could no longer lead the LDP – a position that automatically makes the holder of that office prime minister as it is the largest single party in the lower house – after talks with senior colleagues on Saturday, the Kyodo news agency reported.
Now that Ishiba has vowed not to seek re-election in the party contest, attention will turn to his potential successors, with a leadership vote among lawmakers and rank-and-file party members expected to take place in early October.
Sanae Takaichi, the ultra-conservative former economic security minister, who lost to Ishiba in last October’s leadership election, is expected to make another attempt to become Japan’s first female prime minister.
Some analysts believe the LDP will turn to its youthful and photogenic agriculture minister, Shinji Koizumi, who has led attempts to reduce soaring rice prices since he was appointed in May. As the environment minister, Koizumi, the son of the former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, once insisted the fight against the climate crisis could be “sexy” and “fun”.
Much will depend on how lawmakers who have led the charge against Ishiba cast their votes. They include the former prime minister Taro Aso, who remains an influential figure in the LDP, and other MPs who were close to the former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in July 2022.
Ishiba won the LDP presidency at his fifth attempt last October, but was quickly brought back down to earth when his coalition government lost their majority in the powerful lower house later the same month.
Stripped of their majorities in both houses, the coalition must work with opposition parties to pass legislation or face the constant threat of no-confidence motions. Japan’s perennially splintered opposition parties have been unable to exploit the LDP’s predicament to form a grand coalition, however.
Japan is confronting rising regional tensions, a cost of living crisis and growing public unease over migration that has fuelled a rise in support for the populist Sanseitō party.
Ishiba’s successor will also face the task of restoring public trust in the LDP – which has governed Japan almost without interruption since the mid-1950s – after it was rocked by a major funding scandal.
A Kyodo poll released on Sunday showed the approval rating for Ishiba’s cabinet had slumped to 32.7% – down 2.7 percentage points from last month.
AloJapan.com