Japanese Yen and Aussie Dollar Forecasts: Services PMI and GDP Data Set Tone

USDJPY – Daily Chart – 030925

See today’s full USD/JPY forecast with chart setups and trade ideas.

While traders speculate over the BoJ rate path, the RBA’s policy stance also faces scrutiny, with economists signaling an RBA rate cut in Q4.

AUD/USD: Aussie GDP and RBA Governor Bullock in the Spotlight

Turning to the AUD/USD pair, second-quarter GDP data will influence the RBA’s rate path and Aussie dollar demand. Economists expect the Australian economy to expand 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, up from 0.2% growth in the previous quarter.

A stronger economy may temper expectations of a Q4 RBA rate cut, lifting demand for the Aussie dollar. On the other hand, slowing economic momentum may support further monetary policy easing in the fourth quarter.

Later in the session, RBA Governor Michele Bullock is on the calendar to deliver a speech. Will Governor Bullock fuel speculation about a rate cut?

Any forward guidance on the timeline for a rate cut would influence AUD/USD trends. In August, Governor Bullock stated that the Bank will be data-dependent, meaning upcoming policy meetings would be live.

AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch

Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Weaker GDP data or dovish RBA cues. These factors could push AUD/USD toward the $0.65 level.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Stronger GDP data or hawkish RBA rhetoric. These factors could send AUD/USD toward the $0.6550 resistance level.

Explore our full AUD/USD analysis, including key trends and trade data, here.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook: How Will Labor Market Data Impact Rate Differentials?

While economists expect a Q4 RBA rate cut, markets remain divided on the remaining number of Fed rate cuts for 2025.

Weaker-than-expected US job openings would support a more dovish Fed rate path. Expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts could narrow the US-Australia interest rate differential in favor of the Aussie dollar. A narrowing rate differential may drive AUD/USD toward $0.6550. A break above $0.6550 could bring the $0.66 level into view.

However, rising job openings could widen the rate differential, pushing AUD/USD toward $0.65 and the 50-day EMA. If breached, the 200-day EMA would be the next key support level.