Japanese arrivals to Hawaii were expected to drop below last year’s levels after a sluggish start to the year, but visitor industry members say that the market is gaining ground and has a shot at finishing flat to slightly better.
The improvement, though small, is noteworthy because Japan is the state’s top source of international visitors, and much of the tourism infrastructure, especially on Oahu, is built around catering to this mature visitor market.
The state Department of Business Economic Development and Tourism’s (DBEDT) last quarterly forecast for Japan anticipated that the market would finish this year with 700,000 visitor arrivals, a 2.8% decline or about a 19,599 drop in arrivals from 2024. Visitors from Japan also were forecast to spend $1.05 billion in 2024, a 2.4% decline or a $24 million drop from 2024.
But Eric Takahata, managing director for Hawai‘i Tourism Japan (HTJ), a major marketing contractor for the Hawai‘i Tourism Authority (HTA), said the second half of 2025 is performing stronger and should make up for softness in the first half.
DBEDT reported that some 319,474 visitors from Japan came to Hawaii through June, a 3.2% drop from the same period in 2024, and a 56.5% drop from the first half of 2019. Visitors from Japan to Hawaii spent $470.4 million, which was 3.3% below the first half of 2024, and 54.4% down from the first half of 2019.
Takahata said that he is hearing from Japan travel sellers that “August should be one of the strongest months of the year for Japan arrivals. September numbers should be up over 2024 as well. For year-end, the industry is reporting that the booking pace is really good — it’s up year-over-year. We have certain airlines that are looking at increasing lift during the festive season for 2025.”
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Takahata expects Japan arrivals to end up at least flat, and some of Hawaii’s travel sellers to Japan, including JTB Hawaii and Outrigger Hospitality Group, think a slight gain in volume is possible.
Tetsuya “Ted” Kubo, president and CEO of JTB Hawaii, said “We see an increase from August and each month through December.”
Danny Ojiri, Outrigger Hospitality Group vice president of market development, noted in an email to the Star-Advertiser that while Hawaiian Airlines has reduced capacity for the Japan market, Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA) have stepped in with increases.
“JAL is extending daily Kansai (Osaka) and Chubu (Nagoya) service through January 2026 and adding seats during the Honolulu Marathon and year-end holidays. ANA is maintaining twice-daily A380 service from Narita, with both Narita and Haneda flights performing strongly this summer,” Ojiri said. “Importantly, both carriers are reporting higher load factors than last year. Add to that lower fuel surcharges — down about $100 round-trip compared to a year ago — and the potential for a stronger yen as the Bank of Japan adjusts monetary policy and we see encouraging momentum. All of this points to Hawaii ending the year flat to slightly up, which is a meaningful sign of recovery.”
Obon, marathon boost
The back-end bump in visitor arrivals from Japan started in August, when more Japanese traveled outbound for the Buddhist holiday of Obon, which translates into “lantern festival” and is held to honor ancestors’ spirits. That event is book-ended by arrivals bumps in mid-December for the Honolulu Marathon events, which include the Kalakaua Merrie Mile and the Start to Park 10K, and for the Festive Season, which peaks from Dec. 24 to Jan. 1.
Takahata said some Japan travel sellers are expecting arrivals from Japan to Hawaii during the Obon holidays to grow 20% above the same period in 2024. In Japan, Monday, Aug. 11, was the Mountain Day holiday and the Obon holidays were from Wednesday, Aug. 13, through Saturday, Aug. 16.
Kubo said Obon had an extremely favorable calendar line-up, where “if people took Tuesday off, they could have gotten nine consecutive days off. ”
Ojiri said that the Obon season was notably stronger for Outrigger than in recent years.
“At Outrigger, our beachfront properties for August booked well in advance, a pattern we haven’t consistently seen since pre-pandemic days,” he said.
He added that, “Japan Airlines Vice President and Regional Manager for Hawaii, Yasuharu Omura, shared that JAL increased summer seat capacity by 8% and carried 23% more passengers than last year. Meanwhile, ANA Sales Americas President and COO, Takashi Umetsu, confirmed that their Flying Honu A380 flights from Narita were running at about 85% load factors in August.”
Ojiri noted that the “combination of increased capacity and fuller planes shows the Japanese traveler is no longer ‘waiting for the right time,’ but instead committing early to Hawaii as their preferred holiday destination.”
Takahata said one of the most positive aspects of the current recovery is that travelers from Japan, who have been very price sensitive to unfavorable exchange rates and inflation-induced higher prices, in the back half of the year are choosing to visit during peak travel periods, when the prices are higher.
Jim Barahal, Honolulu Marathon Association president and CEO, said so far entries from Japan for the JAL Honolulu Marathon events are tracking about 27% above last year, and as of the week of Aug. 18 the forecast is for 12,000 to 13,000 Japanese entrants.
“The marathon is clearly outpacing general tourism from Japan to Hawaii at a much greater rate,” Barahal said. “Hopefully this will help that market moving forward.”
Barahal said greater interest in running and the lure of Hawaii as a destination have contributed to the growth in this year’s marathon events, which kick off with the Kalakaua Merrie Mile on Dec. 13. The Start to Park 10K is scheduled for Dec. 14 along with the JAL Honolulu Marathon.
He said the growth in Japan entries for the marathon events is staying steady. But Barahal said organizers are watching the availability of airline seats and hotel rooms which could prove limiting for this very important market.
“Since the late 1980s Japan was the most important market, and it still is,” Barahal said. “Japan Airlines is now the title sponsor and the event has been renamed the JAL Honolulu Marathon. It’s a new expansion or extension of the long-term relationship of over 40 years. It’s a very strong commitment from Japan Airlines.”
Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawai‘i Hotel Alliance, said hotels still have room for growth, adding that “if the Japan segment picks up more, it will be terrific. We need some good news.”
Building opportunities
Ojiri said the opportunities for Hawaii to recover the Japan market are promising, but there are challenges to overcome.
“Overseas travel from Japan is up 14% this year, according to JTB Tourism Research data. We need to zero-in on the affluent travelers — active seniors, dual-income couples and affluent Gen Z,” Ojiri said. “Several high-profile concerts and celebrity visits, often amplified by social media, have brought Hawaii back into the cultural spotlight. We’re also encouraged that travelers are booking earlier again, signaling confidence in travel plans.”
Takahata said although Hawaiian Airlines has pulled back on direct flights between Japan and Hawaii, JAL and ANA are incentivizing domestic flights to connecting cities with direct flights.
Kubo said the strong Obon resulted in more industry promotion in Hawaii for summer, which saw the return of the family market, an important Japan travel market that Hawaii in recent times has been missing.
“We thought that was a very encouraging sign,” he said.
Gibson said hoteliers are grateful to see pickup from Japan in the back half of the year given that the “North American market has been difficult at best.”
Gibson said a more coordinated state-driven marketing effort is needed to prop up Hawaii’s visitor markets, especially the core U.S. market and Japan, Hawaii’s top international source market.
Despite the opportunities, Ojiri said Hawaii is still pacing behind other overseas destinations for Japanese travelers.
“Mixed messages tied to U.S. immigration policies are creating hesitation — especially for families, students and younger travelers. Combined with the exchange rate and high cost of travel, those are real hurdles,” he said. “That’s why it’s critical we reinforce the message that Hawaii is welcoming, safe, and open, ensuring all international visitors feel embraced by the aloha spirit.”
Takahata said for 2026 HTJ’s budget was reduced by $900,000 to $5.4 million, which poses a challenge. However, he said HTJ still plans to shift to a greater emphasis on messaging that conveys “Hawaii Welcomes You,” to Japanese visitors.
“There are people that are going the right thing. They continue to invest in Japan and they are seeing the rewards,” he said.
AloJapan.com