The 2023 US Open winner Coco Gauff is back in the fourth round for the fourth time in as many years, and she’s set to take on two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka.
Gauff (the No. 3 player in the world) and Osaka (the No. 23 player in the world) have both faced some adversity in the 2025 US Open, as Gauff went the distance in her Round 1 match and Osaka needed three sets to advance through the third round.
Both of these players have had a ton of success in New York, although Gauff has fared much better in Grand Slams this year, winning the French Open.
Oddsmakers have the American set as a slight favorite in Monday’s match, but will she advance to another quarterfinal?
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, each player’s path to the fourth round and my prediction.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Moneyline
Total
After winning the Australian Open in 2021, Osaka has not made it to the fourth round of a Grand Slam event – until now.
The No. 23 player in the world has plenty of wins in Grand Slam events, including two US Open titles, to lean on in this match.
Osaka won back-to-back matches in straight sets before knocking off No. 15 Daria Kasatkina in three sets – Osaka won the first set 6-0 – to advance to the fourth round.
She’s faced Gauff five times in her career, going 2-3 with her last win coming in 2021 at the Cincinnati Open.
The No. 3 player in the world has bounced back from her first-round exit at Wimbledon, knocking off No. 28 Magdalena Fręch in straight sets in the third round to advance to Round 4 once again at the US Open.
Gauff has won her last two meetings with Osaka (in 2024 and 2022), but she did lose their lone US Open meeting (back in 2019) in straight sets.
Based on the odds – Gauff -165 – the No. 3 player in the world has an implied probability of 62.26 percent to advance to the quarterfinals on Monday.
It’s great to see Osaka back in contention at a Grand Slam, as she has not made a Round 4 appearance since winning the 2021 Australian Open. In 2025, Osaka had two third-round showings in Grand Slams before the US Open, so she’s certainly a tough matchup for Gauff.
That being said, Gauff has been great at the US Open over the last three years, making the fourth round (2024), winning it all (2023) and posting a quarterfinal exit (2022). While Gauff struggled in her Round 1 match this year, she needed just 21 games in Round 2 and 16 in Round 3 to advance.
I think this match is priced a little closer because of Osaka’s profile, but Gauff has been in better form (outside of Wimbledon) in 2025. I think she’s a steal at -165, especially since she’s had Osaka’s number in the last three years.
Pick: Gauff to Win (-165 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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