Prophecy of July Earthquake Disrupts Planned Travel to Japan

Japan Data

Travel
Economy

Aug 27, 2025

Rumors that a major earthquake would take place in Japan in July led to a drop in visitors from Hong Kong and South Korea, where the false claim was particularly widespread.

Reduction in Flights

The shopping support app Payke, which targets foreign visitors to Japan, conducted a survey of its users regarding the rumor that a major earthquake would strike the country on July 5 of 2025.

Of the 5,000 respondents, 93% had heard of the rumor. Among the 3,394 who had plans to travel to Japan during July or August in particular, 1.5% canceled their planned trip, while 9.5% postponed it, so that 11% in total were impacted by the rumor.

The rumor was particularly widespread in Hong Kong, resulting in roughly double the percentage of cancellations or postponements than the overall average, at 3.9% and 16.8%, respectively. This even led to a reduction in the number of flights.

Impact of Rumor to Travel to Japan Planned in July or August

Half of all respondents (50.0%) said that, as a result of the rumor, friends or family members told them that they should not visit Japan. The proportion was particularly high in South Korea (76.5%) and Hong Kong (67.5%), which suggests that people’s sense of anxiety may have been heightened by the response of those around them.

Did a friend or family member warn you to not visit Japan?

The survey also asked respondents where they first heard the rumor about a possible earthquake. The most common source was news articles or media reports (56.8%), followed by videos on platforms like YouTube (40.8%), Instagram (31.1%), and Facebook (28.2%). Only 9.0% had first heard about the rumor through the original manga, which depicted a prophetic dream.

It seems that the rumor was taken more seriously by travelers because it had not just circulated online but was also reported by the news media.

How did you hear the rumor about a possible earthquake?

Among the 374 people who postponed or canceled their planned trip, 94.1% said that they would still like to travel to Japan in the future, while 60% said that they hope to visit some time in 2025.

According to a representative of Payke, “the impact of the rumor seems to be limited in duration, with little possibility of a decline in tourists over the long term.”

Do you want to travel to Japan in the future?

Data Sources

tourism
earthquake