In 2025, as Japan and the United States marked the eightieth anniversary of the end of the war they fought as foes, Donald Trump returned to the White House, marking a new era of uncertainty in bilateral relations between the allies. Yoshimi Shun’ya, an expert on the relationship, discusses what this could mean for the future of the alliance.
Trump’s “Pro Wrestling Without a Referee”
In January 2025, US President Donald Trump, returning to the White House after four years, set his sights on the long-running US trade deficit with Japan and took steps to impose high tariffs to curb Japanese imports.
Diplomatic talks are still ongoing between the two countries over issues such as tariff rates. However, with President Trump’s next moves being unpredictable, Japan is faced with a challenging path ahead.
How should Japan deal with a difficult president pressuring other countries under the “America First” banner? Yoshimi Shun’ya, who served as a visiting professor at Harvard in 2017 and 2018 during Trump’s first term, says that we must first consider what kind of a person Trump is.
Yoshimi Shun’ya. (© Yokozeki Kazuhiro)
“People often see President Trump as a champion of American nationalism, but his actions are more about putting himself first than putting America first. He exploits divisions within American society and around the world, fueling them for his own advantage. He is behaving like he’s in a pro wrestling match without a referee. He strikes, and when struck back, he strikes again. He involves the media and international institutions, trying to get applause from the crowd. Any situation can be used for the wrestling ring, and those around are swept up into the action without realizing what’s happening. This aspect has become much more extreme in Trump’s second term.”
The “Specter of Imperialism” Emerges
“Make America Great Again” has been Trump’s slogan since his first term. This raises the question: when was America great? It may refer first to the United States in the 1950s to 1960s, but his comments about acquiring Greenland from Denmark, reclaiming the Panama Canal, and making Canada the fifty-first state echo expansionist American ambitions from the late nineteenth century to the early twentieth century.
“Of course, it’s about the America of the fifties and sixties, before its defeat in the Vietnam War. But that’s not the whole story. Trump praised US President William McKinley [in office 1897–1901] in his inaugural address, suggesting that he’s using McKinley’s tariff policy as a model. McKinley led the United States through a time when it was becoming most overtly imperialistic. After winning the Spanish-American War in 1898, the United States took control of the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Guam. That same year, it encouraged a pro-American coup in Hawaii and annexed the islands. In Trump’s second term, it’s as if he’s conjuring the specter of America’s imperialist past. This parallels recent moves by China to exert pressure on Southeast Asia over territorial issues as well as Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.”
Why has the United States, once self-proclaimed as the world’s police, produced a president promoting outdated expansionism? Yoshimi sees the answer in an America now in decline.
“Historically, the United States reached its peak of prosperity from the 1920s to the 1960s. After its defeat in the Vietnam War in the 1970s, the country’s momentum began to falter. Starting with the Ronald Reagan administration in the 1980s, globalization advanced through neoliberalism, and it seemed as if the United States was reviving. However, divisions within the country were growing. Only parts of the IT industry and the financial sector prospered, while many Americans left behind by globalization grew poorer. The country was split into a prosperous ‘light’ America and a declining ‘heavy’ America. Trump skillfully tapped into this discontent to win elections.”
Trump celebrates at a campaign rally. (© USA Today Network via Reuters Connect)
Yoshimi believes that President Trump will not only fail to revive the United States but may actually accelerate its decline. The country’s strength now relies on a globalized economy, and measures like high tariffs that sever these networks are effectively an act of self-sabotage.
Japanese Sentiment Swings Like a Pendulum
How, then, should Japan navigate an America led by President Trump?
The present stability of Japan-US relations rests in large part on the Japanese people’s friendly feelings toward the United States. In a 2024 public survey on foreign affairs conducted by the Cabinet Office, 84.9% of respondents said they hold “friendly” or “somewhat friendly” feelings toward the United States.
Since the survey began in 1975, the figure has consistently stayed above 70%, and since the 2010s it has often exceeded 80%. The only time it fell below 80% since 2010 was from 2017 to 2019, during Trump’s first term.
We should pay attention to how Japanese sentiment toward the United States is shifting now that Trump has returned to the White House, says Yoshimi.
“We have yet to see any major public opinion surveys, such as those carried out by newspapers, focusing on this area since Trump’s return to the White House, but I think it’s reasonable to assume that Japanese people’s sentiment toward America—largely positive to date—has been significantly affected by his unreasonably harsh remarks and policies aimed at Japan. At the very least, the strong sense of unity between the two countries has weakened during the Trump period. Until now, the Japanese government and politicians could not clearly distance themselves from the United States, as more than 70 or 80 percent of Japanese citizens had pro-American sentiment. If public opinion shifts dramatically, however, it’s possible that Japan’s diplomacy, which has aligned the nation exclusively with America, could take a major turn.”
In a survey jointly conducted by Nippon.com and JX Press, about 70% of respondents felt that bilateral relations were deteriorating. Looking back through history shows that Japanese sentiment towards the United States has swung between friendliness and hostility like a pendulum.
Toward the end of the Edo period (1603–1868), as the movement to restore the emperor to the throne grew strong, anti-Western nationalism spread, leading to attacks on foreigners and incidents of arson. After the Meiji Restoration of 1868, though, Japan quickly shifted to a pro-Western attitude as it sought to modernize itself. Nationalism rose again during the Sino-Japanese and Russo-Japanese wars, but in the Taishō era (1912–26) many embraced American culture through Hollywood films and jazz.
From the 1930s through the Pacific War, Japan shifted once more, adopting an anti-American stance and rallying against the “savage” Americans. But after its defeat in 1945, the country turned pro-American again, with US culture spreading into every corner of daily life as a symbol of affluence.
An Antiglobalist Wave Tests Japan-US Relations
Seen this way, it becomes clear that the present era of close ties between Japan and the United States may not last forever.
“Edwin Reischauer, who became US ambassador to Japan in 1961, believed that strong pro-American sentiment had to be fostered among the Japanese to ensure a stable bilateral security framework. He urged President John F. Kennedy to shrink US military bases in Japan and promise the return of Okinawa to draw the Japanese closer. If President Trump continues with his egotistical policies, the Japanese may drift away from the United States, and there will be a rise of nationalism that questions why Japan must always follow America’s lead.”
The kind of nationalism that reacts against globalization is a worldwide phenomenon, not confined just to the United States. In Europe, right-wing parties promoting exclusionary policies have been gaining seats. In Japan, the Sanseitō party, with its “Japanese First” slogan, made major gains in the July House of Councillors election. For now, there are few signs of Japanese nationalism turning anti-American. Yet a major shift in public opinion triggered by some event cannot be ruled out as a possibility.
People gather for a July 3, 2025, campaign speech in Tokyo during the upper house election of July 2025, where policies concerning foreigners were among the points of contention. (© Jiji)
The future of Japan-US relations is growing increasingly uncertain with President Trump on the scene. But why have the postwar Japanese held friendly feelings toward the United States, a former enemy they once fought so fiercely? In an article to follow, Yoshimi explores the historic background that has shaped this relationship.
(Originally published in Japanese. Reporting and text by Koizumi Kōhei and Igarashi Kyōji of Power News. Banner photo: Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and President Donald Trump hold their first summit meeting on February 7, 2025. © Jiji.)
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