Amid growing uncertainty in ties with the United States under President Donald Trump and rising Indo-Pacific tensions, India and Japan are moving closer to strengthening their economic and security partnership.
The two countries are expected to unveil a new economic security framework aimed at boosting growth in both nations when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Japan next week. The prime minister’s three-day visit, his first to the country since 2023, will begin on August 29.
This will give Modi the opportunity to meet the new Japanese Prime Minister, Ishiba Shigeru, who succeeded Fumio Kishida in October last year.
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From Japan, the prime minister will head to China, where he will take part in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit.
Economic and security framework
The proposed India-Japan economic security initiative is aimed at boosting cooperation in areas such as semiconductors, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, and pharmaceuticals.
Modi and Ishiba are likely to revise the joint declaration on security cooperation of 2008 and talk about concrete steps to strengthen defence cooperation in the new document.
During the Indian leader’s visit, Japan is expected to announce a 10 trillion yen (US$68 billion) private investment target in India over the next decade. This will be double the amount it had invested earlier in the country for a period of five years.
“Japanese investors see India as a promising destination for their investment, and these are encouraging not only the big companies but also the SMEs,” said India’s former ambassador to Japan, Deepa Wadhwa.
Shinkasen stakes in India
One of the highlights of Modi’s visit will be the formal announcement of Japan’s latest Shinkansen system for the high-speed railway tracks under construction in India.
Modi is likely to see a demonstration of the E10 series, the latest version of the Japanese high-speed train that will be launched simultaneously in both Japan and India.
While the E10 version will be launched only in 2030, Modi is keen that the 508-km Ahmedabad-Mumbai bullet train project is completed before 2027, since his home state goes to elections in December the same year.
Attempts are therefore being made to complete the tunnels and train tracks under the project so that the earlier version, E5 series, can become operational before the latest E10 version is launched.
Japan is also keen to see that its export of bullet trains and the Shinkansen system to India succeeds.
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Despite its impeccable record in punctuality and safety, Japan has not been successful in selling it to other countries.
Rails of strategic ties
Tokyo’s attempts to sell the train to Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan and California failed due to high cost, even though many of them were initially keen on the project.
The cost of the high-speed train project is currently estimated at Rs 1.65 lakh crore and is likely to rise to Rs 2 lakh crore, according to estimates. Though Japan has offered to provide the loan at 0.1 per cent interest over a period of 50 years, sceptics have raised questions about the massive expenditure and its commercial viability.
But the high-speed train project is being seen from the long-term perspective of India and Japan’s strategic partnership. Experts argued that this was part of laying the foundation for future cooperation in other areas, especially cutting-edge technology in defence.
Defence cooperation
A new milestone was achieved recently between India and Japan with an agreement on the “Unicorn Masts” technology. It focuses on the transfer of advanced radar systems for surveillance purposes.
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These systems, developed by Japan, are known for their ability to detect even the most elusive objects, such as stealth aircraft, making them a critical asset in modern warfare.
The agreement has the potential to facilitate the co-production of defence equipment between India and Japan, in addition to creating opportunities for collaboration in the manufacturing of global jets and submarines.
Globally uncertain times
The US, though a vital partner for both India and Japan, has cast uncertainty over its relations with the two countries.
Trump’s high tariffs have dealt not just an economic blow, but also a political one. Modi’s Tokyo visit comes against the backdrop of Trump’s 50 per cent tariff that has strained India-US ties. Trump imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Indian products during trade talks and increased it further by 25 per cent punitive tariffs for India’s decision to buy Russian oil.
The high tariffs have made it impossible for Indian products to remain competitive in the American market.
Ishiba is facing weak economic growth and an uncertain political future as the prime minister. Trump imposed a 15 per cent tariff on Japanese exports and forced Tokyo to promise to invest US$550 billion, making it more difficult for him.
The US President proudly said, “It’s not a loan or anything. It’s a signing bonus.”
India-Japan’s China challenge
India and Japan, however, face an equally formidable challenge from China, their common neighbour and the region’s dominant power.
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China’s ambitious maritime claims have caused serious concerns among the countries in the Indo-Pacific region. It is a crucial region for both India and Japan since the important sea lanes that run through it carry oil and other essential items for the two countries.
As members of the Quad alongside the US and Australia, both India and Japan are committed to an open and stable Indo-Pacific.
For Modi, balancing ties with Japan and managing the complexities of relations with China will be a critical test of his diplomatic acumen.
AloJapan.com