President Lee likely to take ‘pragmatic’ approach to first summit with Japan’s Ishiba

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, right, shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on the sidelines of the Group of 7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada, on June 17. [YONHAP]

 
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will travel to Tokyo this weekend for his first bilateral summit since taking office, meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in a move that signals Seoul’s growing strategic focus on its historically fraught relationship with Tokyo.  
 
Although the pair previously met on the sidelines of the Group of 7 gathering in Canada in June, Lee’s choice to hold his first overseas summit with the Japanese leader, and not the U.S. president, underscores the significance of Korea-Japan relations amid growing geopolitical concerns for the two countries.  
 
Though Seoul and Tokyo each maintain separate defense treaties with Washington, they share concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for increased defense spending by allies and the imposition of tariffs on key exports.
 
At the same time, the legacy of Japan’s 1910-45 occupation of the Korean Peninsula continues to cast a shadow over their bilateral relationship.  
 
 
While Lee repeatedly accused former President Yoon Suk Yeol of adopting an overly “submissive” approach to Tokyo in order to bolster trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan, he has recalibrated his tone since taking office.  
 
Notably, he made little mention of the historical issues that plague South Korea-Japan relations in his Liberation Day address on Aug. 15, saying only that “many [Koreans] still suffer from historical wounds” and “remember the dreams of independence activists.”  
 
He has also pledged a “two-track” policy of dealing with disputes concerning Tokyo separately from areas of cooperation that are beneficial to Seoul.  
 
Lee’s upcoming visit to Japan not only marks the first test of his “pragmatic” approach to South Korea’s foreign relations, but could also set the tone for how he handles a bilateral relationship fraught with a difficult past and shifting regional dynamics.  
 
A chance to reset bilateral ties
 
The South Korean presidential office has offered few specifics on the agenda, saying only that the visit would provide a chance to “solidify the foundation for future-oriented cooperation” and conduct “candid discussions” on bilateral and trilateral coordination.
 
But analysts believe Lee will likely use his first meeting with Ishiba to set the tone of Seoul’s relationship with Tokyo during his five-year term in office.  
 
“This summit is an opportunity for the president to shed his anti-Japanese image,” said Lee Myon-woo, former director of the Sejong Institute, a think tank in Seoul. “Tokyo is aware of his past rhetoric — especially over contentious issues like the Fukushima wastewater release — and will be watching closely to see if he now prioritizes diplomacy over domestic politics.”
 

President Lee Jae Myung speaks during a ceremony to celebrate the 80th anniversary of Korea’s liberation from Japanese colonial rule in Seoul on Aug. 15. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]

 
The timing of the visit, coming before Lee’s scheduled trip to Washington, has also drawn attention.
 
“The fact that President Lee is visiting Tokyo before Washington underscores the diplomatic weight he places on Korea-Japan relations,” said Choi Eun-mee, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. “It may also signal a revival of the shuttle diplomacy that characterized earlier periods of improved ties between the two countries.”
 
Sohn Yul, president of the Seoul-based East Asia Institute, noted the symbolic significance of the summit, which comes as South Korea and Japan mark 60 years since they established diplomatic relations in 1965. “It’s a moment not just for reflection, but also to chart a path forward,” he said, adding that the two countries would also likely “emphasize the strength of their bilateral ties as part of the U.S.-led security triangle in East Asia.”
 
Areas of alignment and divergence  
 
Despite a shared interest in countering North Korea and navigating tensions with China, South Korea and Japan continue to differ in their strategic postures.
 
Tokyo has long favored international pressure and sanctions to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. By contrast, the Lee administration has signaled a willingness to pursue cautious engagement with the North — a departure from the hard-line stance adopted under Yoon, but less conciliatory than the overtures made during the Moon Jae-in era.
 
Still, analysts say those differences are unlikely to derail bilateral cooperation.
 
 
“For Moon, inter-Korean relations were the centerpiece of foreign policy,” said Sohn. “Lee only seeks to thaw the current deep freeze, which is unlikely to provoke strong objections from Tokyo.”
 
On China, the divergence is more pronounced. Japan has aligned closely with the U.S. strategy to contain China, particularly on Taiwan and economic security. South Korea, however, has adopted a more cautious stance — supporting the U.S.-led order while trying to safeguard its vital trade ties with China.
 
Even so, experts say Lee is unlikely to veer too far from Tokyo or Washington. “He won’t risk diplomatic isolation,” said Lee Myon-woo. “There’s too much at stake.”
 

Warships from South Korea, the United States, and Japan — including the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, the destroyer ROKS Seoae Ryu Seong-ryong and the destroyer JS Haguro — take part in the trilateral Freedom Edge exercise in international waters south of Jeju Island on Nov. 13, 2024. [NEWS1]

 
One growing common concern for Seoul and Tokyo is navigating their increasingly volatile relationships with Washington. Last month, Trump threatened to impose 25-percent tariffs on Korean and Japanese exports — ultimatums both Lee and Ishiba managed to negotiate down, albeit with considerable unease.
 
“I don’t count on a joint statement pushing back against Trump,” said Lee Myon-woo. “But behind closed doors, coordination and information sharing is almost certain — especially since Lee is due to visit the White House next.”
 
Observers also expect the two leaders to emphasize the strength of bilateral ties, which have improved markedly in recent years. 
 
In 2023, Seoul and Tokyo fully restored the General Security of Military Information Agreement (Gsomia), a bilateral military intelligence-sharing pact which was nearly terminated over their 2019 trade spat.
 
Looking past history — for now  
 
Despite the summit’s forward-looking tone, disputes between the two countries over Japan’s colonial rule remains unresolved. In 2018, South Korea’s Supreme Court ordered Japanese firms to compensate Korean victims of wartime forced labor — rulings Tokyo rejected based on the 1965 treaty. That standoff sparked a wave of tit-for-tat economic measures, including Japanese export controls on semiconductor materials and South Korea’s decision to suspend Gsomia.
 
Equally potent is the unresolved trauma surrounding the so-called comfort women — a euphemism for Korean and other women coerced into sexual servitude by the Japanese military during World War II. A 2015 agreement between the two governments, initially hailed as a “final and irreversible resolution,” ultimately collapsed under public criticism in South Korea for failing to reflect the voices of survivors or to hold Japan sufficiently accountable.  
 
 
Other flashpoints, which include Japanese history textbooks, Tokyo’s continued claim to the Dokdo islets and visits by conservative Japanese politicians to Yasukuni Shrine — which honors convicted war criminals alongside the country’s war dead — also periodically provoke outrage in South Korea.  
 
However, analysts expect Lee to sidestep those issues during this visit.
 
“There’s simply too much else on the table,” said Choi. “Neither leader wants historical disputes to dominate this summit.”
 

Lee Yong-soo, center, a 97-year-old survivor of wartime sexual enslavement by the Japanese military, attends a ceremony at the Ahn Jung-geun Memorial Hall in Jung District, central Seoul, to mark International Memorial Day for Comfort Women on Aug. 14. [YONHAP]

 
Likewise, Lee Myon-woo said the Korean president is likely to use the summit “in a pragmatic manner” — in other words, to focus on deepening ties with Japan before addressing historical issues.  
 
Changing sentiments
 
Although South Korean atittudes toward Japan have long been shaped by nationalist sentiment and historical grievances, growing regional tensions — particularly with North Korea, China and a volatile U.S. presidency — appear to be recalibrating public opinion.
 
“In the past, many South Koreans believed relations with Japan couldn’t improve without first resolving historical issues,” said Sohn. “But recent polling shows broader public support for pragmatic cooperation, even if those issues remain.”
 
Lee’s two-track policy, Sohn added, “is aligned with that shift — a belief that national interests should not be sacrificed for the sake of arguments over the past.”
 

Korean passengers use a dedicated lane at Haneda Airport in Tokyo on June 1, the day special lanes for travelers from Korea and Japan opened at select airports in both countries to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties. [YONHAP]

 
In keeping with his stated commitment to “pragmatic” diplomacy grounded in “national interests,” Lee has shown little inclination to revisit past agreements with Japan, particularly if doing so risks straining bilateral ties.
 
In an interview published Thursday by Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun, Lee affirmed his intention to uphold agreements reached by previous South Korean administrations with Japan on the issues of wartime forced labor and so-called comfort women.
 
While acknowledging that the accords remain “greatly difficult for the South Korean people to accept,” the president described them as “promises between countries” that are “not desirable to overturn.”
 
He also praised the 1998 joint declaration by then-President Kim Dae-jung and Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi, calling it a landmark that “drew a new line” in bilateral relations.
 
Potential pitfalls
 
Despite increasingly positive views of Japan in South Korea and vice versa, shifts in domestic politics in both countries can still potentially upend relations.
 
Up until recently in South Korea, Lee’s Democratic Party (DP) corralled anti-Japanese sentiment to challenge conservative governments. Now that the DP controls both the presidency and the legislature, the key question is “whether President Lee can sustain support from his party and the public on his approach to Japan,” according to Sohn.
 
In Japan, the moderate Ishiba leads a coalition government headed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which does not command a majority in the House of Representatives. His possible successors from within the LDP are likely to be the moderate Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi — son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi — or the hard-line nationalist lawmaker Sanae Takaichi.
 

Japan’s Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, center, leaves the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo after a visit on the 80th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II on Aug. 15. [AP/YONHAP]

 
“Koizumi wouldn’t cause too many problems in the bilateral relationship, but Takaichi would be a real headache,” said Lee Myon-woo, noting that the latter has made several statements in the past denying Japanese atrocities in World War II.
 
On the other hand, Sohn cautioned that the instability of governments held together by the LDP means that the influence of even a hard-line successor to Ishiba would likely be temporary.
 
“It would be hard for someone like Takaichi to push Japanese foreign policy to the far right in a sustained manner,” he said, adding that “mutual goodwill in both South Korea and Japan, and the necessity of cooperation in the current geopolitical climate, would likely outweigh the damage that could be wrought by changes in Japanese domestic politics.”
 

BY MICHAEL LEE [[email protected]]